The war is fundamentally changing the Middle East: with each passing day, the cracks in the balance of power become deeper. Fear of Iran, which is now perceived as even more dangerous, has been compounded by distrust of Trump and Netanyahu. In this context, Saudi Arabia has taken the lead in a project that could revolutionize the security architecture in the Region: the creation of an alliance with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt. The four countries are designing a military pact with significant economic consequences and strong political influence. The alliance is called STEP, after the initials of the participating states, while some have already christened it the “Arab NATO”. In Riyadh, however, a more symbolic name is gaining ground: the “Mohammed Agreements”.
The name underscores the leadership of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the connection between the four Sunni nations. At the same time, it suggests that the project could mark the end of the Abraham Accords with Israel.
In theory, the Muslim coalition brings together elements that would allow it to act independently. As one senior military official from the Persian Gulf summed it up: “The Saudis have the capital, the Pakistanis the nuclear weapons, the Turks the technology, and the Egyptians a powerful army.” If these elements were to harmonize, the Region could be on the verge of the birth of a new superpower. However, the history of the Middle East shows that many similar alliances, whether in the spirit of pan-Arabism, Baathism, or other political projects, have proven short-lived. Under Gamal Abdel Nasser, Saddam Hussein, Hafez al-Assad, or Muammar Gaddafi, federations and confederations of states were created that disintegrated within a few months.
Today, the situation is different. Netanyahu’s determination to pursue his goals regardless of the White House’s objections, combined with Trump’s political weakness and his desire to reduce the US military presence abroad, has created a huge strategic vacuum. Mohammed bin Salman aims to fill this void by guaranteeing Saudi Arabia’s security against any threat, including nuclear.
The starting point of this process was reportedly an Israeli operation that damaged relations with the Arab monarchies: the raid last September on Qatar to eliminate Hamas leaders. This action caused shockwaves in the Region, and just a few weeks later the Saudi prince signed a treaty with Pakistan, which contains a mutual defense clause, similar to NATO’s Article 5. Pakistan offers the guarantee of its nuclear arsenal and armed forces, while in return it receives financial support for its fragile economy.
The attack on Iran on February 28 was a second blow to Saudi Arabia. Riyadh had supported Omani mediation and believed that a diplomatic compromise was possible. Instead, it found itself drawn into the conflict without warning and without additional support from the United States. Since then, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has made the Gulf monarchies pay the price for the open confrontation between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran. It was precisely the desire to end the war that led the foreign ministers of the STEP countries to meet on March 19. This meeting led to a diplomatic initiative that contributed to the halting of the American bombing and the launch of talks in Islamabad.
Diplomatic meetings have now become a permanent mechanism for cooperation. Mohammed bin Salman’s upcoming visit to Turkey is expected to be another important step. The agenda includes expanding the Saudi-Pakistani treaty to include Ankara, while major infrastructure projects are being implemented: railways, logistics centers, transport networks, digital systems, and even a pipeline that will transport Saudi oil to the Mediterranean.
Meanwhile, the rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, two bitter rivals until a few years ago, is turning into a genuine military partnership. The air forces of the two countries are conducting joint exercises and are considering the creation of a joint squadron of F-16 aircraft to protect Saudi airspace. Qatar, which has long cooperated closely with Turkey in the military field, has also expressed interest in joining the new Regional initiative. If this project is fully realized, the participating countries would have direct influence over some of the most strategic nodes of world trade: the Suez Canal, the Bosphorus, the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz. Such a development would significantly change the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond.