A prolonged confrontation between Iran and Israel could lead to a rise in global energy prices, which would provide a short-term boost to Russia’s budget revenues.
Russia remains ready to act as a mediator in the conflict between Israel and Iran, and Moscow’s previous proposals to stockpile Iranian uranium in Russia remain on the table, the Kremlin said. Russia’s previous proposals to resolve the conflict are still on the table, but mutual attacks between the two countries have complicated the situation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with ABC News on Sunday that he is open to the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin taking on the role of mediator between Israel and Iran. Given Moscow’s ties to both countries, questions remain about how Russia could get involved in the conflict.
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
Moscow in April ratified a strategic partnership agreement with Iran that includes provisions for the two countries to counter common threats, but more importantly does not create any kind of military alliance between the two countries. “Signing the treaty does not mean creating a military alliance with Iran or mutual military assistance,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said in a speech to the State Duma at the time. Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia and the Middle East at the Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, wrote in X that Russia is likely to seek involvement through international bodies, such as the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
mediation
Notte also noted that Russia is likely to continue trying to play the role of mediator in the conflict, given its desire to remain an influential player in Regional and global affairs. On Friday, Vladimir Putin offered Russia as a mediator in his phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Diplomatic success for Russia, however, is far from guaranteed, Notte wrote in Foreign Affairs earlier this year. “The turmoil in the Middle East has proven too intense and unpredictable for Moscow to confidently steer it in a favorable direction.” Ruslan Suleymanov, a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University in Baku, echoed this sentiment. “Russia’s credibility in the Region was undermined last year when Putin showed his weakness by not supporting Bashar al-Assad in his fight against jihadists. Putin has made it clear that he is no longer trustworthy,” Suleymanov told The Moscow Times.
IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
A prolonged confrontation between Iran and Israel could lead to a rise in global energy prices, which would provide a short-term boost to Russia’s budget revenues. Complications in reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program could also help Moscow by further delaying the entry of Iranian oil and gas into global markets – and in particular European ones. Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel pushed the price of Brent crude up by almost 10% on Monday compared to last week, from $67 per barrel to $73.60 per barrel.
Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, such as gas processing plants, could limit Iran’s oil and gas production, which supplies gas to neighboring countries such as Turkey and Iraq, and oil to China. Yet for the Russian economy, which relies on oil and gas revenues for foreign exchange and tax revenue for the government, the standoff could have some short-term economic benefits. The shortages caused by the disruptions would help boost Russian oil revenues.