The issue is further complicated by the situation in northern Syria, where the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their main militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), control an autonomous Region along the border with Turkey. Ankara considers these forces to be branches of the PKK and a threat to national security.
The peace process between the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is facing serious difficulties, despite signs of a new era. Earlier this year, imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan declared an end to the armed struggle and ordered PKK fighters to withdraw from Turkish territory. In July, some of the armed units laid down their arms and moved to the Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq, raising hopes for a lasting solution to the “Kurdish issue.”
However, after this initial optimism, the peace process remains fragile and without guarantees. The PKK has not received any concrete political offers from the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and there are no signs of its inclusion in Turkish institutional life. There are also no visible steps to expand the civil rights of the Kurdish population, including the recognition of the Kurdish language as an official language. According to researcher Ozcan Yilmaz from the University of Geneva, Ankara is waiting for the intelligence services to confirm the complete dissolution of the PKK before taking new political steps. At the same time, the Turkish parliament has approved a new mandate that gives the army the right to conduct cross-border operations against the PKK and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria for the next three years.
The issue is further complicated by the situation in northern Syria, where the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their main militia, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), control an autonomous Region along the border with Turkey. Ankara considers these forces to be branches of the PKK and a threat to national security.
Despite their ideological proximity to the PKK, the YPG and the SDF have refused to implement Öcalan’s order to disarm, calling it the PKK’s “internal matter.” This has reinforced Turkey’s distrust, which suspects that Kurdish autonomy in Syria could become a model for its own Kurds. On the ground, tensions between Kurdish forces and Syrian government troops are rising. Although an agreement was signed in March to integrate the Kurdish administration and forces into Syrian state structures, distrust remains deep. Armed clashes have increased in the provinces of Hasaka and Raqqa, with both sides accusing each other of provocations.
Turkey has warned that it will support Damascus if the issue of the autonomous Region’s integration is not resolved by the end of the year, even through a military operation. According to Bloomberg sources, Turkish officials are ready to supply the Syrian army with military equipment under an agreement signed over the summer, which allows it to strike Kurdish militants along the entire border.
However, analysts warn that a new Turkish military intervention in Syria would risk collapsing the entire peace process with the PKK, which had barely begun to yield results. “A major offensive against the Kurds in Syria would mark the end of the process. For the PKK, this would be proof of total failure,” emphasizes researcher Ozcan Yilmaz. In this climate of uncertainty, Turkey finds itself at a delicate crossroads: choosing between political dialogue to resolve the Kurdish issue or returning to the cycle of violence that has shaken the country for more than four decades.