Russia and China are today facing—each for different reasons—a critical moment for their survival as states built on nationalism and military power.
Russia and China are two empires and, as such, they are far from being monolithic blocs. Within the Russian Federation governed from Moscow live peoples of very different ethnicities, cultures, religions, and traditions. The same is true of China, where alongside the Han majority (about 90–91% of the population) there coexist 55 ethnic minorities. History has shown that such states—true social mosaics—can remain united only through the figure of the so-called “strongman,” who in turn must rely on several pillars to avoid being consumed by internal power struggles. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, though in different ways and in response to different problems, use the same “crutches”: nationalism and aggression.
RUSSIA: POWER THROUGH TERRITORY AND WEAPONS
On one side stands Russia, a country that historically has never been truly wealthy, marked by an obsessive siege mentality and the belief that power equals territorial control. Putin has embraced this mindset, attempting to cover the wounds left by the collapse of the Soviet Union with military force: Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and today Ukraine are all part of this strategy.
The goal has been twofold: on the one hand, to reclaim territories that once belonged to the Tsarist empire and are still perceived as such; on the other, to preserve the idea that Russia is a power capable of playing on the same level as—if not above—other major international actors. To this military project, Moscow has added a victimhood narrative, according to which Russia is the target of the West, which—so the Kremlin claims—has “drawn” former Soviet republics into NATO, ignoring the fact that those states themselves, once freed from communism, actively sought U.S. protection.
Pointing to an external enemy is one of the most effective ways to unite a population. And it has worked—not only for Russia, but also for NATO, which has been significantly strengthened since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.
CHINA: GROWING WEALTH, BUT DEEP WOUNDS
On the other side stands China, the world’s second-largest economy—a country that is becoming ever richer but hides deep social and economic inequalities. Unrestrained urbanization in coastal and southeastern areas contrasts with vast interior regions that remain largely agricultural and sparsely populated. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen, while key sectors of the economy, such as construction, are in crisis—Evergrande being a prime example. On the military front, Xi Jinping aims to build an army capable of rivaling U.S. power.
However, China still lacks both the logistical capacity to truly compete with the United States and a consolidated military leadership elite, especially after ongoing purges within the state and military apparatus. Despite this, Beijing follows a line similar to Moscow’s: consolidating society through nationalism and adopting an increasingly aggressive policy toward its neighbors. An extreme example of this approach is the repression of the Uyghurs.
Internationally, the main focus remains Taiwan, which China considers a non-negotiable part of its territory. In addition, there are border clashes with India and maritime provocations toward the Philippines and Japan. This is not open war, but a persistent hostile posture that still leaves room for diplomacy. The reason is clear: China’s “social pact” is based on the Communist Party’s promise of stability, and a major military conflict would jeopardize the very foundations of its power.
A DANGEROUS SCENARIO FOR TWO LAND EMPIRES
The result is that both Russia and China today find themselves surrounded by hostile states—a nightmare scenario for land-based empires. In the worst case, that of a global escalation leading to a third world war, their forces would be spread across two theaters of conflict at opposite ends of the globe, facing a unified international alliance under a single umbrella: that of the United States, which already maintains military bases near both countries.
Moscow and Beijing thus find themselves in an existential dilemma that threatens not only their imperial ambitions but also their very nature as autocracies. For the aggressive nationalism of Xi Jinping, like that of Putin, can function only up to a point: without concrete action, it risks turning into empty rhetoric, leaving behind an ideological vacuum that will become increasingly difficult to fill. (Il Giornale)