Shortly after midnight on October 18, almost 1.000 kilometers above the Earth’s surface, a Russian military satellite, known as Kosmos-2612, did something extremely unusual.
He approached another satellite – registered in the United States, operated by a Finnish company and which, among other things, provides intelligence information on Ukraine.
How close did it get?
According to some estimates, 200 meters. Maybe even less.
“This is provocative. But, in my opinion, it is typical of the things that Russia does all the time.”
The incident has attracted the attention of amateur satellite observers and commercial companies, as well as Western intelligence agencies, on a scale not seen in a long time.
This is also the latest in a series of increasingly escalating actions involving not only Russia, but also the US, China and other countries that operate in space and have satellite capabilities, fueling fears of an arms race in space.
Or, even worse: a war in space.
“What’s new is that I don’t believe there’s ever been such a close approach between two satellites without prior coordination,” said Victoria Samson, a space analyst at the Secure World Foundation, a Washington-based think tank.
“Russia could make this approach to interfere with the Finnish satellite’s transmission, to jam it, to eavesdrop on what it is eavesdropping on, to harass it or even to physically harm it,” she said.
“I would say that this is being seen as disturbing and aggressive, with potentially hostile intent,” said Douglas Loverro, a former senior space policy official at NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense. “But I also think that those who are judging the situation with cool heads believe that this is a form of signaling from the Russians. In the meantime, I think the Russians are teaching us how to behave.”
“If accurate, a close approach of 150 meters is extremely close and unlikely to be a routine operational action,” said Bruce McClintock, a retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general who is now a space policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. “This is a legitimate security and defense concern, but it should not automatically be described as an attack or as evidence of hostile intent.”
Trajectories of the past
During the Cold War space race, Moscow and Washington placed weapons in orbit, testing and detonating nuclear devices, some of which caused severe damage to satellite communications. The mutual explosions paved the way for the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which permanently banned the placement of nuclear weapons in space.
The treaty did not rule out anti-satellite warfare, that is, the development and deployment of technologies to disrupt or destroy other countries’ orbital facilities. According to the Secure World Foundation, countries conducted at least 50 anti-satellite tests during the Cold War.
In the 1980s, the US military tested missiles launched from fighter jets that would strike satellites in orbit. But the result was clouds of metal debris hurtling across the planet at potentially lethal speeds. Congress canceled the program.
In 2007, China used a ground-launched rocket to destroy an old weather satellite at an altitude of about 865 kilometers. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, this event “created more persistent debris in space than any other event.”
A year later, the US military used its naval Aegis missile defense system to destroy a malfunctioning satellite. In this case, the satellite was destroyed at a lower altitude and the scattered debris remained in orbit for only a short time.
In 2019, India surprised the international space community by conducting its own anti-satellite test. The object was destroyed at an altitude of about 282 kilometers above Earth, in a way that, according to experts, minimized the lifetime and spread of the cloud of debris in orbit.
In December 2020, Russia tested a missile that destroyed a defunct military satellite. The test created a cloud of debris that later endangered the International Space Station.
US officials say Russia appears to have also tested “Russian doll”-type satellites, designed to carry smaller satellites, which are then released while in orbit.
In April of this year, Russia sent six satellites from its launch base in Plesetsk, in the north of the country, into low Earth orbit.
A month later, according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, five of them maneuvered in a way that gave them the opportunity to intercept another object: a commercial, non-military satellite operated by ICEYE, a Finnish company that provides “space-based intelligence to Ukraine.”
The satellite, called ICEYE-X36, includes synthetic aperture radar, a technology that allows for more detailed images of the Earth’s surface and can be used day or night, even in cloudy conditions. In a statement released in May, the US Space Force said the Russian satellites were positioned near a “Western commercial radar satellite used by Ukraine for imaging intelligence,” but did not identify it.
ICEYE, based in Espoo, Finland, did not immediately respond to RFE/RL’s emails.
Late last week, one of Russia’s military satellites, Kosmos-2612, began to position itself closer to ICEYE-X36, according to observers who track the satellites.
Then, over the weekend, Kosmos-2612 came even closer.
Very close.
Major General Michael Traut, head of Germany’s Space Command, described the Russian spacecraft as a satellite that was “following” the ICEYE satellite.
“It is reasonable to consider an unannounced approach as disturbing and potentially escalating,” McClintock said, “but proximity alone does not prove hostile intent or an imminent attack.”
“This is provocative”
Last month, the United States caused a stir with another unexpected announcement: Washington has, in fact, deployed weapons in space. These are “orbital space control weapons capable of protecting Joint Forces from hostile adversary actions,” the US Air Force secretary said at a conference outside Washington.
For space observers, this announcement only made public what had been clear for a long time.
“The United States did not suddenly militarize space by acknowledging that it possessed these capabilities,” wrote Mallory Stewart, a former senior arms control official at the U.S. State Department. “A space arms race has been underway for years.”
Depending on what happens next with Kosmos-2612 – if something happens to the Finnish-operated satellite – there may be grounds for a formal complaint under the Outer Space Treaty.
However, this would only lead to consultations with Russia, said Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University.
“Finland would have to decide on any further reaction, such as retaliation or countermeasures,” he said. “Such actions may or may not be limited to the space domain.”
“This does not constitute a violation of the Outer Space Treaty, unless it is argued that Russia is not acting with ‘due care’ in this situation,” Samson said. “However, ‘due care’ has never been defined, and no country has ever accused another country of not acting in accordance with this principle.”
“This is certainly provocative,” Loverro said. “But I think it’s typical of what Russia does all the time: it moves closer and closer to the borders to test the adversary’s red lines and resolve. They learn a lot from our response.”
“Will they physically attack the satellite? Maybe. That, of course, would be a violation of the treaty,” he said. “And, of course, the invasion of Ukraine has violated dozens of treaties.”