How flexible each side is on its terms will ultimately determine whether a deal can be reached. For Trump, one of the priorities is to avoid a deal that could be compared to the Obama-era nuclear deal, which he withdrew from in 2018 and has repeatedly criticized as weak. However, a number of critical points, including Iran’s future ability to enrich uranium, the fate of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and what sanctions will be lifted, remain unresolved, according to people familiar with the talks.
President Donald Trump met with his national security team Tuesday afternoon at the White House facing a big decision: what to do next with Iran?
The ceasefire deadline was approaching, and Air Force Two was waiting on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews ahead of Vice President JD Vance’s scheduled departure for Pakistan for the next round of talks. But the administration was facing a problem: near-total silence from the Iranians. In the days leading up to it, the U.S. had sent Iran a list of broad points of the deal it wanted the Iranians to accept before the next round of talks. But days went by without a response, raising doubts about how much could be achieved by Vance and others going to Pakistan for direct talks, according to three officials familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN.
As Trump met with Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine and CIA Director John Ratcliffe at the White House on Tuesday, the administration had yet to receive a response from Iran. Officials had asked the lead Pakistani negotiator, Field Marshal Asim Munir, to provide at least some kind of response before Vance boarded Air Force Two.
Yet even after hours, there was nothing. In the White House, top Trump advisers believe that one of the main reasons for the lack of response is divisions within the current Iranian leadership, an assessment based in part on information from Pakistani intermediaries, according to three officials. The administration believes that the Iranians do not have a common position or agree on how much authority to give negotiators on the issue of uranium enrichment and the current stockpile of enriched uranium, a key point of disagreement in the peace talks. Another complicating factor, according to the US, is whether the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is giving clear instructions to his subordinates, or whether they are trying to guess his wishes without concrete instructions.
U.S. officials believe his efforts to remain in hiding have disrupted internal discussions within the Iranian government. Despite these major obstacles, one official said there is still a chance that U.S. and Iranian negotiators will meet soon. But when and if that will happen remains highly uncertain.
Rather than resume military strikes, President Donald Trump decided to extend a two-week ceasefire with Iran just before it was due to expire. This time, he did not specify an end date. Trump, who called Iranian officials “deeply divided” in a post on Truth Social, remains interested in a diplomatic resolution to the war and is wary of reigniting a conflict for which he has no popular support and which he claims the United States has already won. However, the failure of the negotiations so far highlights the difficulties Trump continues to face in trying to reach a deal that meets his many demands. Iran has publicly insisted that Trump lift the blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz before Tehran will engage in a new round of talks.
Trump has rejected that request. “We’re not opening the strait until we have a final deal,” he told CNBC on Tuesday morning. In a meeting in the afternoon, Trump and the rest of the group decided to extend the ceasefire that Pakistani mediators said would expire in a few hours, although Trump had suggested he believed it would last until Wednesday evening in Washington.
That could theoretically give Iran more time to reach a common position with Khamenei’s approval, though officials have said there are no guarantees. Officials have stressed that a trip could be arranged quickly if there are signs that Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table. Both the United States and Tehran face economic consequences as long as the strait remains effectively closed, leading some officials in the Region to hope that both sides are motivated to reach a solution as soon as possible. Pakistani officials, who on Tuesday tried to persuade Iran to participate in the talks, were also encouraging Trump to extend the ceasefire. As the deadline approached, Trump decided to “extend the ceasefire until their proposal is presented and the discussions are concluded, one way or another.”
But Iranian officials did not seem impressed by Trump’s move. “Trump’s extension of the ceasefire means nothing,” said Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian negotiating delegation. “The losing side cannot dictate the terms. Continuing the siege is no different from bombing and must be met with a military response,” he added.
Trump’s announcement that the ceasefire would continue capped a day of uncertainty that began with his statement that he “expects to bomb” Iran again in the near future. Without a new deadline, however, Trump’s advisers have privately warned the president that easing pressure could give Iran the opportunity to drag out negotiations, according to sources familiar with the discussions. At the very least, negotiators had hoped to reach a framework agreement this week between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. officials had hoped that would then lead to more detailed talks in the coming weeks on the details of the deal. However, that approach had its detractors, who warned that Iran could be dragging out discussions to buy time while it unveils some of its missile systems hidden during the war.
A number of critical points, including Iran’s future uranium enrichment capability, the fate of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles and what sanctions will be lifted, remain unresolved, according to people familiar with the talks.
How flexible each side is on its own terms will ultimately determine whether a deal can be reached. For Trump, one of the priorities is to avoid a deal that could be compared to the Obama-era nuclear deal, which he withdrew from in 2018 and has repeatedly criticized as weak. In recent days, Trump has expressed optimism about reaching a better deal, citing his negotiating skills, even claiming on Tuesday that he would have “won Vietnam very quickly” if he had been president at the time. “I think we’re going to end up with a great deal,” he insisted. “I think they have no choice. We’ve destroyed their navy, we’ve destroyed their air force, we’ve eliminated their leaders, which actually complicates things in some ways.”
Hours later, while honoring college athletes at the White House, Trump was remarkably silent about the war during his speech, waving off reporters who tried to ask him questions before leaving the room. (Associated Press)