Trump has long criticized the US’s long-standing military commitments and advocated reducing US financial commitments abroad. During his inaugural address on January 20, he described himself as a “peacemaker”. “Trump wants a new Middle East; he wants the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords and he wants to be seen as someone who brought peace and got a Nobel Prize for it.”
US President Donald Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to neighboring countries has been widely rejected and condemned. The forced relocation of 2.3 million Gazans to Egypt and Jordan could destabilize the region and destroy any chance of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, experts say. But the proposal could also shift the onus on US allies in the region to come up with a solution to one of the world’s most complex conflicts, experts say.
“Trump is taking the most extreme position on an extremely sensitive issue as part of a broader negotiation on Gaza and Israel,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the British think tank Chatham House. “By putting pressure on key U.S. allies who are truly dependent on American aid and security, he hopes to achieve his goal of burden-sharing,” Vakil said.
THE FUTURE OF THE TWO-STATE SOLUTION
Washington has for decades supported a two-state solution that would create an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. But progress has been hampered by deep differences between Israelis and Palestinians over borders, settlements and the status of Jerusalem. The Palestinians also insist that any future Palestinian state must include the Gaza Strip, making Trump’s proposal unsettling not only to critics but also to U.S. allies, including Germany.
“Trump has yet to articulate a clear vision for a two-state solution or a way forward in the Israel-Palestine conflict, but if US policy leans toward displacing Palestinians from Gaza, it suggests limited room for positive progress on this issue,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the US policy analysis group Eurasia Group.
Many of Gaza’s residents have been displaced and much of the Palestinian enclave has been destroyed in Israel’s 15-month war against Hamas, a group designated a terrorist organization by the US and EU. The conflict was sparked by an unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023.
The fighting was suspended for six weeks as part of a multi-phase ceasefire agreement reached on January 15 that envisions a permanent end to the war and the reconstruction of Gaza. Trump, who announced his idea on January 25, said the potential displacement of Gazans “could be temporary, it could be long-term.”
Eldad Shavit, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the Israeli far right widely supports the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza because it believes “Israel can occupy the territory and build new settlements.”
Trump has said he has shared his ideas with Jordan and Egypt, U.S. allies in the region that receive significant aid. But both countries oppose any effort to force the displacement of civilians. Shavit said it is “not reasonable” to expect Jordan and Egypt to accept the proposal, because they already host millions of Palestinians displaced by the creation of Israel in 1948 and the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict. He argued that taking in more refugees “would be a major risk to the stability of these countries.” Experts say that displacing Gazans and, therefore, destroying the prospect of an independent Palestinian state, could also hinder efforts to normalize relations between Israel and regional power Saudi Arabia.
“I don’t see it as something that will be received positively in the Gulf, especially in Saudi Arabia, where [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] has made the creation of a Palestinian state a condition for normalizing relations with Israel,” Brew said. Several Arab states have normalized relations with Israel under the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords in recent years.
THE NEED TO “CHANGE THE STATUS QUO”
The strong opposition to Trump’s plan among Washington’s allies and Arab states suggests that it is unlikely to be implemented, experts say. “I think we have to be careful not to read too much into Trump’s comments, which were made in an off-the-cuff manner,” Brew argued. Trump likes to “think big,” and he and his advisers could try to “change the status quo” by pushing regional parties to take responsibility for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Shavit said.
“He wants to sway the parties in a way that forces them to think about a solution they can accept,” he said. Trump has long criticized the long-standing U.S. military commitments and advocated reducing American financial commitments abroad. During his inaugural address on Jan. 20, he described himself as a “peacemaker.” “Trump wants a new Middle East; he wants the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords and he wants to be seen as someone who brought peace and got a Nobel Prize for it,” Shavit said.
(Radio Free Europe)