For both analysts, the Student List’s victory is just the beginning of a much more complicated process. The new government must prove that it can build independent institutions, capable of investigating even the highest-ranking former officials, without political interference and without prejudging their responsibility.
Aleksandar Vučić lost power. Now, the question is whether he will also be held accountable for the way he wielded it. After the Student List’s victory in the October 25 elections, Serbia faces a challenge that goes beyond changing the government: investigating corruption, separating institutions from political influence, and determining responsibility for alleged abuses during the rule of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
Two analysts in Belgrade believe that the investigation could reach the former president, but warn that political responsibility does not necessarily mean criminal responsibility. “I believe that the investigation should also reach Vučić, just like it happened in Croatia with Sanader,” says Dušan Spasojević, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade, referring to former Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, who was convicted of corruption. Dragan Popović, director of the Center for Practical Politics, also considers it difficult for the new prosecutor’s office not to investigate Vučić’s role. However, he warns that the charges that can be proven in court may be more limited than citizens expect. In a discussion on the “Most” program of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Balkan Service, the two analysts discuss the possibility of criminal prosecution of the former Serbian president and the challenges the new government faces in dealing with the legacy of the previous regime.
FROM THE TRAGEDY IN NOVI SAD TO THE CHANGE OF POWER
The political change in Serbia came after a wave of protests sparked by the collapse of a concrete shelter at the Novi Sad Railway Station on November 1, 2024, which killed 16 people. The tragedy, in a renovated building, raised suspicions of corruption, negligence and a lack of oversight in public projects. Students, who led the protests, demanded the publication of renovation documentation and accountability for the victims. Over time, their demands expanded, transforming the movement into a direct challenge to the government.
The victory of the Student List in the early parliamentary elections marked the loss of power by the SNS, after years of dominance in Serbian politics, and brought about an unusual development in Serbian politics: a movement without a single leader managed to defeat a party with a powerful structure and wide institutional influence. According to Spasojevic, the students ran a well-organized campaign, with prepared candidates and a constant presence on the ground, achieving better results than the most optimistic predictions. However, he expects their victory to be followed by a profound reorganization of the political scene. “We are certainly facing a reconstruction of the political scene, and already in the first upcoming elections we will have two million voters who will be looking for new actors,” says Spasojevic.
Popović believes that the students’ success creates opportunities for the renewal of political parties, weakened both by “autocratic rule” and by their internal problems. He recalls that most opposition parties supported the Student List, while those that competed separately failed to secure significant support. For Popović, the victory also proves the rejection of a model of governance, where power is concentrated in the hands of a leader. “At this moment, the majority of Serbia said no to the authoritarian system,” he says.
IS THERE BASIS FOR CRIMINAL PROSECUTION OF VUCIC?
The possible criminal liability of the former Serbian president is among the most sensitive issues of the political transition. Spasojevic recalls that Vučić had publicly positioned himself as the main decision-maker, although his decisions were implemented by ministers and other officials with formal powers. “Vučić had positioned himself in public as the main actor. He gave orders, while his decisions were implemented by ministers, aides and other persons who had the powers to do so,” says Spasojevic. For this reason, he expects the investigations to start with officials who had direct responsibility for implementing the decisions.
However, according to him, there is reason to also examine Vučić’s role, especially in the case of the collapse of the railway station shelter in Novi Sad. Spasojević believes that there is evidence that could help determine the former president’s role in accelerating the works, which, according to him, Vučić had an interest in completing as soon as possible for the purposes of political promotion. Popović also expects Vučić’s role to become the subject of an investigation, given the concentration of power in his hands. “I find it difficult to imagine that the new prosecutor’s office will not deal specifically with Vučić, as the bearer of all power in the autocratic pyramidal system that he created,” says Popović.
But he distinguishes between suspicions of responsibility and the evidence needed to file an indictment. “The next question is what they will be able to find sufficient evidence for and what they will be able to charge him with. This will probably be less than citizens expect,” he says. According to Popović, investigations may require documents, testimony and the cooperation of people who were part of the previous system. He emphasizes that public expectations should not affect the respect for legal procedures.
WILL THE EXPERIENCE BE REPEATED AFTER MILOŠEVIĆ?
Serbia has faced the challenge of establishing accountability after a change of power before. The overthrow of former President Slobodan Milošević on 5 October 2000 paved the way for democratic reforms and promises to break with the practices of the previous regime. But some of these promises have remained unfulfilled. One example is the effort to purge institutions of officials responsible for abuses in office – a process known as lustration.
Popović recalls that Serbia had passed a law to this effect, which remained in force for ten years, but was never implemented. According to him, the commission that was supposed to implement the law was not formed, as the parties of the deposed regime, now in opposition, refused to appoint their representative. The Student List has promised to implement this process, in addition to confiscating illegally acquired assets. But Spasojević doubts that the cleaning of institutions will be comprehensive. “I am afraid that a wider lustration will probably not happen,” he says. According to him, pressure from within the institutions to remove people who have contributed to the abuses may be more feasible.
Popović, on the other hand, warns that confronting the past should not turn into political revenge. He emphasizes that the removal of officials from public office is a legally complex process and that the affected persons must be guaranteed the right to challenge the decisions. “These measures can be useful, but they must be implemented carefully. They must not turn into witch hunts. Human rights must be respected,” says Popović.
DOUBTFUL WEALTH, ANOTHER TEST FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT
Another challenge will be the investigation of assets acquired during the years of SNS rule. Popović believes that a class of extremely wealthy people has been created in Serbia, the source of whose wealth raises serious doubts. He cites luxury villas and private jets owned by people connected to power as examples of enrichment that has fueled discontent in society. For this reason, Popović believes that reforming the tax administration should be among the priorities of the new government, in order to investigate the origin of assets and enable the confiscation of those proven to have been acquired illegally. According to him, this approach could yield more concrete results than a broad process of exclusion from public office.
But the implementation of reforms will also depend on the ability of the new government to change the way institutions function, which for years have been under the influence of previous political structures. Spasojevic warns that Vučić is trying to keep his supporters united and prevent the disintegration of the structures he has built.
THE TRUE PROOF OF CHANGE
For both analysts, the Student List victory is just the beginning of a much more complicated process. The new government must prove that it can build independent institutions, capable of investigating even the highest-ranking former officials, without political interference and without prejudging their responsibility. For Spasojevic, this is especially important to avoid repeating the mistakes made after the fall of Milosevic, when Serbia failed to fully confront the legacy of the previous regime. “If we do not punish anyone now, then in the future we will see a similar leader,” Spasojevic concludes. (RFE)