In 2017, Emmanuel Macron came to power as a leader promising to unite left and right, business and workers, eurosceptics and euro-enthusiasts. But today, commentator Nicolas Baverez sees it differently: “Macron is the target of popular anger. He bears full responsibility for this ruin. Like any demagogue, he has reduced the country to a field of ruins.” France thus finds itself at a historical turning point – between political chaos, the burden of debt and a polarized society.
By BBC
Some French people were offended this week when they learned that their political crisis was becoming the butt of humor… in Italy. Yet in less than two years, France has gone through five prime ministers, a record that surpasses even Rome’s most turbulent post-World War II years. The new National Assembly, elected after Emmanuel Macron’s abrupt dissolution of parliament in July 2024, is currently unable to produce a majority that can pass the budget. The situation was further complicated by a general strike this Thursday, September 18, called by unions opposed to the budget proposals. A third of teachers boycotted work, most pharmacies were closed, and Paris’ metro lines remained out of service.
Newspapers in Rome and Turin reported the situation in a less than expected way. The articles highlighted the humiliation of former Prime Minister François Bayrou, the risk to the debt and even the possibility that France would seek a bailout from the IMF. But more than anything, the focus was on the decline in the brilliance of President Emmanuel Macron. “Where is the greatness now?” wrote the newspaper Il Messaggero. This year alone, France is expected to spend 67 billion euros on debt service, more than any other ministry except education and defense. By the end of the decade, this figure could reach 100 billion euros a year. Last week, Fitch downgraded the rating of French debt, making government borrowing more expensive and reflecting distrust in the country’s ability to repay its obligations.
MACRON AMID STRIKES AND POLITICAL PARALYSIS
While Europe is shaken by war, populism and American uncertainty, France is mired in a political, social and financial crisis. Last week, the radical group “Bloquons Tout” (“Let’s Block Everything”) organized protests that ended in clashes with the police. But the big test came yesterday, with massive marches by unions and left-wing parties against the government’s plans. Analyst Nicolas Baverez warned: “At this critical moment, when the sovereignty and freedom of France and Europe are at stake, the country finds itself paralyzed by chaos, incompetence and debt. Macron says he can pull the country out of the mess, but he has only 18 months left until the end of his second term. And many are asking: will France emerge stronger from this crisis, or ultimately weakened, prey to extremists of the left and right?”
PRIME MINISTERS WHO ARE FALLING ONE AFTER ANOTHER
The crisis began with Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly in the summer of 2024. Instead of stability, he produced a parliament divided into three blocs: center, left, and far right. Michel Barnier and François Bayrou tried to lead the government, but were defeated. Bayrou, 74, tried to reduce the debt by cutting 44 billion euros from the 2026 budget, and even proposed eliminating two national holidays to increase defense spending. The result? The alliance of the left with the far right ended his political career. Macron, tired of the tensions with previous prime ministers, last week chose a confidant: Sébastien Lecornu, 39, a close friend of the president. “With Lecornu, Macron is practically also prime minister,” explains economist Philippe Aghion.
THE BUDGET CHALLENGE AND THE Clash with Parties
Lecornu has a titanic task: he must submit a draft budget by October, which must then be approved within the year. Mathematically, this is only possible with the support of the Socialists and conservative Republicans. Meanwhile, the Socialists are demanding: the cancellation of the pension reform that raised the retirement age to 64, taxes on the super-rich and lower targets for reducing the debt.
These are unacceptable to the Republicans, while the powerful business union MEDEF has warned of demonstrations if taxes are increased. Moreover, the approach of municipal elections in March and presidential elections in 2027 makes compromise even more difficult. Le Pen’s National Rally and Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise are ready to call any agreement a “treason”.
TWO SCENARIOS FOR FRANCE
At best, Lecornu could compromise, avoiding an immediate crisis. But this budget would be seen as half-hearted and would push markets to further raise borrowing costs. At worst, failure would bring the resignation of another prime minister and perhaps new elections, in which Marine Le Pen could triumph.
MACRON, FROM HOPE TO “GUILTY”
In 2017, Emmanuel Macron came to power as a leader promising to unite left and right, business and workers, eurosceptics and euro-enthusiasts. But today, commentator Nicolas Baverez sees it differently: “Macron is the target of popular anger. He bears full responsibility for this ruin. Like any demagogue, he has reduced the country to a field of ruins.” France thus finds itself at a historical turning point – between political chaos, the burden of debt and a polarized society. The question is: will it survive as it always has, or will it become “the new sick man of Europe”?