The first option is for some Democrats to defect. Three Democratic lawmakers voted for the Republican budget proposal on Wednesday: if five more colleagues join them, the shutdown will end. Republicans are insisting that the budget be unblocked before any negotiations with Democrats.
On the first day of the government shutdown, the Trump administration suspended all VOA news programs and laid off all its journalists. This did not happen in previous shutdowns: Without federal funding, many would have worked without pay or been furloughed, with pay coming later. The journalists were fired two days after a court reinstated about 500 VOA employees.
The US government has been in a state of shutdown since Wednesday due to a battle between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, which has prevented the passage of a temporary funding bill until November 21. Democrats and Republicans are blaming each other for the shutdown. Democrats have refused to accept the Republican proposal, demanding that cuts to health care for poorer and middle-class Americans be rolled back.
THE TRUE PURPOSE
About 750.000 workers have been sent home, and others, such as military personnel and Border Patrol agents, are working without pay, Reuters reports. The White House is using the financial blockade to punish political opponents as much as possible, the NYT points out: as early as Wednesday, they stopped sending billions of dollars to Democratic-led states, announcing massive job cuts. The first movements indicate that President Donald Trump may use the blockade to achieve his goal of cutting the budget and taking revenge on political enemies, the NYT writes. The BBC analyzes that there are four ways in which the government shutdown could end.
SCENARIO
The first option is for some Democrats to defect. Three Democratic lawmakers voted for the Republican budget proposal on Wednesday; if five more colleagues join them, the shutdown would end. Republicans are insisting that the budget be unblocked before any negotiations with Democrats, NPR reports. The second option is for Democrats to capitulate. As the shutdown drags on, pressure on Democrats to capitulate will grow. Federal workers are a key constituency for Democrats, and they are the ones at risk of losing their jobs during the shutdown and not getting paid.
The public can blame Democrats for the damage caused by the shutdown, due to the disruption of a number of public services and losses for companies that work for the government. According to a new NYT poll, a full 65 percent of voters are against the shutdown. The third option is for Republicans to make concessions. It is also possible that Republicans will be the ones to withdraw, according to the BBC. They were behind most of the government shutdowns in the past, and the public can hold them accountable this time too. Republican policy aims to shrink the state, as few social services as possible, as few employees as possible.
EXTENSION OF THE BLOCKADE
The fourth option is to extend the shutdown. The most recent federal government shutdown lasted a record 35 days and ended only when air travel in the U.S. was on the verge of a massive disruption. And it wasn’t even a full shutdown like this one, because part of the budget was approved. This time, the consequences could be more severe. If the current shutdown continues, it’s possible that disgruntled voters could punish both parties in next year’s election.
The U.S. government shutdown is generally having only a small impact on the economy, but the knock-on effects could build over time, S&P Global warned in a review of the recent shutdown of many government agencies, as furloughed employees will spend less. GDP could therefore grow 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points weaker for each week of work disruption, S&P estimated, noting that the analysis takes into account “primarily direct costs and is therefore conservative.”