There is optimism about the membership of two Western Balkan countries, Montenegro and Albania, in the European Union (EU), it was said at a panel discussion on the enlargement of the European Union, organized within the framework of the international forum, GLOBSEC in Prague. However, the participants in the panel assessed that the membership of these two countries in the EU could also lead to the deepening of divisions in the Western Balkans region. It was also said that the enlargement of the EU to this region would have a positive impact not only for the candidate countries, but also for the security and economy of the EU countries. The panel discussion entitled “From policies to people: security and opportunities through regional cooperation and EU enlargement” was held within the framework of the GLOBSEC security forum, which takes place in Prague from 20 to 23 May 2026.
PEOPLE FROM THE WESTERN BALKANS STILL SEE THEIR FUTURE IN THE EU
Pavle Jankovic from the Regional Cooperation Council, emphasized that research conducted by this organization in the Western Balkan countries shows that citizens of this Region consider both Regional cooperation and membership in the European Union important.
The 2025 Balkan Barometer survey, conducted by this council, shows that in the Western Balkan countries, support for EU membership has increased in 2025. According to the survey, 64 percent of citizens of the so-called “Western Balkans six” (Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia) think that EU membership would be positive for them, which is 10 percent more compared to 2024. The highest support for EU membership is among citizens of Albania (86 percent) and Kosovo (78 percent). On the other hand, the lowest support in the region is in Serbia, with 42 percent.
The survey also shows that the majority of citizens see regional cooperation in the Western Balkans as “an important driver of progress” in areas such as politics, economy, security and general well-being. “This shows us that, despite frustrations, slow reforms and political tensions, people still see their future in the European Union. But they expect more than declarations, they expect jobs, mobility, security, predictability, less corruption and more opportunities,” said Jankovic. He gave examples of practical cooperation in the region that matter to ordinary citizens, such as the abolition of roaming fees within the Western Balkans or the possibility of traveling with ID cards within the region.
THE RISK OF “THE SUCCESS OF SOME BECOMING A PROBLEM FOR OTHERS”
Jankovic warned that regional cooperation should continue even after some of these countries join the European Union. “The future of one or two Western Balkan economies joining the EU should not create new divisions in the region. If Montenegro advances first, while Albania follows, regional cooperation should not weaken, but become more relevant and flexible,” he said.
Christian Schmidt, the outgoing High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, agreed with Jankovic. “I think Montenegro and Albania can be examples of success in the coming years, but we have to be very careful that the success of some does not become a problem for others,” he stressed. Husein Bagci, a professor at the Middle East Technical University, added that it is also important that citizens of Balkan countries have an equal position when they join the EU, and do not feel “like an additional party that the EU accepts with mercy.”
WHAT ARE THE THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS?
Ana Krstinovska from the Hellenic Foundation for Foreign and European Policy said that there are three possible scenarios for the next decade. The most optimistic scenario is one in which all Western Balkan countries become full members of the EU. The second, “medium” scenario would be one in which only Montenegro and Albania become members in the next decade. Krstinovska said that she agrees with the other panelists that this could create a new dividing line in the region, but on the other hand it would be a signal that the enlargement policy still exists, as well as a motivation for other Western Balkan countries to approach their reforms more seriously. The third scenario, according to her, is the most unfavorable for both the region and the European Union – a scenario in which none of the Western Balkan countries become EU members.
Krstinovska assessed that the EU is already losing out because it has not expanded to the Western Balkans. She cited the production of critical raw materials as an example. “In proportion to its size, the Western Balkans is a significant producer of copper. However, most of this copper, especially from Serbia, ends up in China – in the hands of one of the EU’s largest economic competitors. Meanwhile, the EU imports copper from Latin America, Brazil and Chile, which brings high logistical costs, but also additional risks related to global geopolitical uncertainty,” Krstinovska explained. She said that the Western Balkans currently provide about 3 percent of the EU’s copper needs, and that this percentage could increase to 8 percent. Krstinovska also cited a similar example that applies to aluminum, “especially from Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which also ends up largely in China.”
UNEQUAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE PATH TOWARDS THE EU
The panelists repeatedly expressed optimism for the rapid accession of Montenegro and Albania to the European Union. These two countries have been singled out as leaders in the European integration process – Montenegro is closer to membership, with all chapters open and the aim to close negotiations by the end of 2026, while Albania is progressing faster in the region, although it has not yet entered the phase of closing chapters.
On the other hand, Serbia has been facing stagnation since 2021 due to a combination of factors – mainly relations with Kosovo, but also problems with the rule of law, the state of democracy and harmonisation with EU foreign policy. Four years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Serbia remains one of the few European countries that has not imposed sanctions on Russia. Membership negotiations are also blocked in the case of North Macedonia, which, despite major compromises it has made, such as changing the country’s name at the request of Greece, remains blocked on the European path, due to a dispute with Bulgaria. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are at an earlier stage of the process, where progress is limited by structural and political challenges.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has not fully implemented any of the 113 key reforms set out in the Reform Agenda adopted by the European Commission in December last year. The country has committed to implementing reforms in 26 areas with a total of 113 measures by 2027, with a significant number related to strengthening the judiciary. Kosovo does not yet have candidate status, mainly due to unresolved issues with Serbia and the fact that five EU member states do not recognise its independence. During a recent visit to Kosovo, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stressed that many reforms have stalled due to two parliamentary elections held in 2025. Discussions have recently been opened on other models for integrating the Western Balkan countries into the EU economic market.
Several EU member states – Austria, the Czech Republic, Italy, Slovakia and Slovenia – support the gradual integration of candidate countries into the EU’s single market as a way to maintain the pace of enlargement and accelerate reforms. In a non-paper first seen by Radio Free Europe, it is said that the “step-by-step” approach would promote economic integration and harmonization of rules, while preserving the prospect of full membership. The idea of integrating the Western Balkan countries into the European single market in February 2026 has also been put forward by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama. In a joint text for the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, they said that the countries of the region should not immediately obtain full political membership in the EU, but first integrate into the European single market and the Schengen area. (RFE)