On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom made one of the most important political decisions in its modern history. After a fierce and deeply divisive campaign, over 33 million Britons went to the polls to answer a single question: Should the United Kingdom remain part of the European Union or leave it?
The result was narrow but decisive. With 52% of the vote, the majority chose to leave the European Union, ending a membership that had begun in 1973. The referendum not only changed Britain’s relationship with Europe, but also opened a new political, economic and diplomatic chapter, the consequences of which are still felt today, a decade later. Images from that day show citizens casting their votes, while at polling stations the main protagonists of the campaign appear: then-Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for remaining in the European Union; Boris Johnson, the most prominent figure in the “Leave” camp; and Nigel Farage, one of the politicians who had for years called for Britain to leave the EU.
Just a few hours after the results were made public, financial markets reacted with strong fluctuations, the British pound suffered its biggest drop in decades, while Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation, admitting that he could not be the person to lead the country through the complex process of leaving the European Union.
“I will do everything I can as prime minister to stabilise the country in the weeks and months ahead, but I do not believe it is right for me to be the captain who steers Britain to its future destination.” Cameron’s resignation was just the beginning of a long period of political turmoil. Negotiations with Brussels dragged on for years, the British parliament was embroiled in constant clashes, and the country went through one of the most unstable political periods since World War II.
In the 10 years since the referendum, Britain has seen five prime ministers. Theresa May failed to secure approval of the Brexit deal. Boris Johnson managed to finalize the country’s formal exit from the European Union in January 2020. Then came Liz Truss, whose record-breaking term ended after the financial crisis caused by her economic policies, and Rishi Sunak. In 2024, the Labour Party returned to power after 14 years in opposition, with Keir Starmer as prime minister.
But what has Britain gained and what has it lost after a decade? According to Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, the economic balance is negative. He says that almost all the main predictions of economists have been confirmed. “Brexit has had exactly the impact that economists predicted. The British economy is weaker and smaller than it would have been in the absence of Brexit. The debate continues about the exact size of this damage, but it is a matter of several percent of Gross Domestic Product. In short, Britain is today several percent poorer than it would have been if it had remained part of the European Union.”
British economic institutions also reach similar conclusions. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the British economy will be around 4% smaller in the long term as a result of Brexit.
Meanwhile, international academic studies argue that the loss could be even greater, while private investment has fallen significantly compared to the scenario in which Britain would have remained part of the European single market. However, Portes underlines that during these years other European economies have also been hit by the pandemic, the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine. According to him, these developments should not be confused with the specific effects of Brexit. Another central promise of the campaign to leave the European Union was immigration control. Brexit supporters argued that leaving the EU would end free movement and significantly reduce the number of immigrants.
Free movement ended, but the reality turned out to be quite different. Britain faced severe labor shortages in sectors such as health, agriculture, transport, and services. After the pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, British governments were forced to open new visa programs for foreign workers.
As a result, immigration reached record levels. “We took control of immigration policy and ended free movement. But because of the labor shortage, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, immigration increased more than before Brexit. This softened the economic blow, but it was not what many voters expected.”
Brexit also changed the British political map. The Conservative Party, which had dominated politics for more than a decade, faced internal divisions, a change of leadership and a loss of public trust. At the same time, Nigel Farage, the man who for years called for leaving the European Union, made a strong return to the political scene with the Reform UK party. “Nigel Farage has avoided responsibility for the perceived failures of Brexit because he has not been in government. The Conservatives have taken the brunt of the criticism and this has created a huge political space for Farage.” On January 31, 2020, Britain officially left the European Union. In the square in front of Parliament, thousands of supporters celebrated the historic moment with British flags, music and a countdown to the official exit.
For Brexit supporters, it was the return of national sovereignty. “Dare to dream. The dawn of an independent United Kingdom has just begun.”
Ten years later, public perception has changed significantly. Numerous polls show that a large proportion of Britons, including many of those who voted to leave, believe that Brexit has not brought the promised economic benefits. However, this does not mean that there is a political majority for returning to the European Union. Keir Starmer’s Labour government has chosen a more pragmatic approach. London has resumed cooperation with Brussels in areas such as trade, defense, security and foreign policy, but without discussing returning to the EU. “There is a growing consensus that Brexit has not worked as promised. But there is still no shared vision of how the future relationship with the European Union should be built. At the moment, a closer return seems politically difficult.”
According to Jonathan Portes, Britain is not the only loser. The European Union has also lost one of its largest economies and powers, at a time when the continent is facing the war in Ukraine, global tensions, competition with the United States and China, as well as new challenges to European security. 10 years after the referendum that changed the political history of the United Kingdom, the questions remain the same: Did Brexit make Britain stronger? The answers continue to divide British society. But the decision of June 23, 2016, continues to influence Britain’s politics, economy and relations with Europe, even a decade later.