The European Union’s population is expected to peak in 2026 at 453,3 million before entering a prolonged decline that will take it to 419,5 million by 2100. The data comes from the latest demographic projections published by Eurostat. According to the report, the EU will have 27,3 million fewer inhabitants compared to 2022, which serves as the basis for this update. However, this scenario foresees a key condition: the arrival of around 98 million migrants in the member states by the end of the century.
Italy and Poland are expected to be the hardest hit countries in absolute terms, each losing over 8 million inhabitants by 2100. Meanwhile, the largest percentage declines are predicted in Latvia and Lithuania, with contractions of 37,8% and 36,7% respectively.
The list of countries with significant declines also includes Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, where the population is expected to fall by 20% to 30%. Another major concern is the aging of the population. According to Eurostat, by 2050 there will be fewer than two people of working age in the EU for every elderly person. This ratio is expected to worsen further by 2100, when there are projected to be only five people of working age for every three elderly people. These developments raise serious questions about the bloc’s labor market, pension systems and economic sustainability in the coming decades.