The figures show that immigration can turn the tide of a demographic crisis and provide stability in countries with low birth rates and aging populations. This phenomenon is expected to remain a key element of European policies in the coming years, as the bloc’s countries try to find a balance between birth rates, immigration and economic development.
After more than a decade of continuous decline, Italy’s population has marked a significant turnaround in the last year, stopping its decline for the first time in about 12 years. According to the data, this stabilization is directly related to the increase in immigration, which has compensated for the natural decline in the population caused by low fertility and aging. Italy, with around 59 million inhabitants, has been one of the countries most affected by the demographic crisis in Europe. For years, the number of births has been lower than the number of deaths, leading to a continuous contraction of the population. However, new migratory flows have reversed this trend, bringing a slight increase and stabilizing the demographic structure.
This clearly shows that immigration can act as a demographic “life booster” for countries with low fertility. Spain, with around 48-49 million inhabitants, has followed a similar trend, experiencing a slight increase. This is due to inflows from abroad, which have compensated for the lack of births and strengthened the labor market, especially in sectors where young people are lacking.
In Germany, the most populous country in the EU with around 83-84 million inhabitants, immigration has also become the main source of demographic growth. Without inflows from abroad, the population would be shrinking due to an aging population and low birth rates. Germany also leads in the number of residents born abroad, making migration a crucial factor for the economy and the labor market. Meanwhile, France recorded 645,000 births and 651.000 deaths last year. For the first time since the end of World War II, France’s natural population balance has become negative, as reported in the annual demographic report of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies presented at the beginning of this year.
The country’s current population, which now stands at 69.1 million, has grown largely due to the balance of immigration, which is unlikely to offset the natural decline in the long term. Although the reversal of the natural balance was expected, local media described it as a wake-up call for the country’s political leaders.
The combination of a steady decline in fertility and persistently high mortality, which is expected to continue, and even increase, in the coming years, goes hand in hand with another fact: an aging population. In contrast, Poland continues to face a population decline, with an estimated 36-38 million inhabitants. Although the country has experienced increased inward migration, especially from neighboring countries such as Ukraine, this is not enough to compensate for internal migration and low birth rates. Poland shows that in countries with limited migratory growth, immigration cannot compensate for all demographic challenges.
The data also show that migrants to the EU are generally younger than the native population and are concentrated mainly in the 15-64 age group, contributing significantly to the labour market. The figures show that immigration can reverse a demographic crisis and provide stability in countries where fertility is low and populations are ageing. This phenomenon is expected to remain a key element of European policies in the coming years, as the bloc’s countries struggle to find a balance between fertility, immigration and economic development.