The market for autonomous weapons operating on land, sea and air is expected to grow from $47 billion last year, driven largely by Trump administration policy, to $98 billion by 2033. In the world of flying drones, the most sought-after ones are divided between the “Old Testament” and the “New Testament.”
Everyone wants them, but no one sells them… The Gulf conflict has brought the role of drones, undisputed protagonists of modern warfare, back into the spotlight. But even 4 years after the invasion of Ukraine, which highlighted their importance, there is still a huge gap between demand and supply. The reason is simple: low-cost systems do not interest American and European giants, who are aiming for much higher-profit equipment, looking towards military drones or unmanned ships of the future.
THE DRONE MARKET IS ON THE GROWTH
The market for autonomous weapons operating on land, sea and air is expected to grow from $47 billion last year, driven largely by Trump administration policy, to $98 billion by 2033. In the world of flying drones, the most sought-after ones are divided between the “Old Testament” and the “New Testament.”
“OLD TESTAMENT”: THE BIG AMERICAN AND ISRAELI DRONES
Since 2001, the scene has been dominated by large, expensive unmanned aircraft. The Predator was the pioneer, an icon of the Global War on Terror, then followed by the Reaper. For more than a decade, the armed version was an American monopoly, produced by General Atomics, which recorded $ 3,2 billion in revenue in 2025. They were followed by Israeli companies: Elbit with Hermes and IAI with Heron. The market also expanded to Turkey with Baykar and Selçuk Bayraktar’s TB2 drone, which was exported to 36 countries.
These drones are expensive: a Reaper costs around 30 million euros, the TB2 and Heron around a third of that amount, plus satellite navigation systems. But modern wars, such as the offensive on Iran, have shown their limitations: slow, easy to detect by radar, and many of them have been lost, more than 20 by the Americans and the same by the Israelis.
“NEW TESTAMENT”: FREE AND INTELLIGENT DRONES
This type was born on the battlefields of Ukraine, where new categories were developed. The main ones are suicide drones, similar to flying bombs. Russia used and improved the Iranian Shahed: efficient, with a range of up to 2,000 km, difficult to detect, costing under 25 thousand euros. The Americans also created their own version, the Lucas, used in attacks on the Pasdarans. SpektreWorks, a small company, sells them for 35 thousand dollars.
Ukrainians have created dozens of models, adapting them to the needs of the front lines, with startups springing up like mushrooms by the summer of 2022. These companies have ties to the American technology industry, challenging giants Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Raytheon. Examples are Project Eagle, by former Google CEO Erich Schmidt, and Anduril, by Palmer Luckey and linked to Peter Thiel’s Palantir. They promote the concept of a “Technological Republic”, conceived by Silicon Valley for hi-tech weapons.
Their revolution has three pillars:
– Bureaucratic delays are eliminated, processes from request to operation take very little time
– Low costs
– Advanced artificial intelligence
New companies are not going public because there are investors lining up. They are developing production capacities and supplying the urgent demands of the Gulf monarchies, especially for anti-drone drones. Only Anduril and Project Eagle are managing to meet them.
EUROPE IS LAGGING BEHIND
Europe is not keeping up with the rapid pace of development in the sector: defense ministries are tied to multi-year plans and do not adapt to the speed of change in modern conflicts. However, some companies are thriving, such as Germany’s Tytan, which is transforming automobile plants to produce anti-drone drones. Other companies are showing off reconnaissance or attack drones: Germany’s Helsing and Stark, France’s Harmattan AI, Portugal’s Tekever, or DeltaQuad. In Ukraine, TAF Industries and UkrSpecSystems operate, while Skyeton has branches in Slovakia.
MINI-DRONE BOMBS
Although small, mini-drone bombs are widespread in the Donbass, built with Chinese or 3D-printed parts, and cost only 1 to 2 euros. Ukraine shows that every 6 months innovation makes drones quickly obsolete, creating a paradox: you can’t order equipment that will become worthless before it’s used. This requires changes in the organization of procurement and contracts to get the right equipment at the right time.