Amid the horrific trench warfare, the lack of progress on the battlefield, and with tens of thousands of soldiers dead or wounded, the desire to enlist is clearly fading. The lack of new recruits poses a grave threat to Ukraine’s war effort against Russia – which has a population three times larger and continues to draft men into the army, including those serving prison sentences.
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainians lined up to join the armed forces, in a burst of patriotism that inspired the Western world and defied Moscow’s expectations. Now, two years later, between the horrific warfare in the trenches, the lack of progress on the battlefield, and with tens of thousands of soldiers dead or wounded, the strong desire to join the military is clearly fading. The lack of new recruits poses a major risk to Ukraine’s war efforts against Russia – which has three times its population and continues to draft men into the army, including those serving prison terms.
CHRISTMAS SURPRISE
On Christmas Eve, the Ukrainian government submitted a long-awaited draft law on mobilization to parliament, prompting scorn from some opposition lawmakers. Solomia Bobrovska, a lawmaker from the Holos party, said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Ukrainian Service on December 27 that the bill was submitted at a time intended to “make it so that no one would notice,” calling it a “Bolshevik” tactic. She also criticized elements of the bill. The draft law on mobilization was submitted in the name of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and not President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is the commander-in-chief. Some experts took this as a sign that the president fears that his highly rated popularity could take a hit.
Druzenko said that the Government may be tasked with presenting the bill and facing some criticism, as confidence in it has fallen and may not fall again.
According to a poll by the Kiev International Sociological Institute (INSK), only 26 percent of Ukrainians trust their government, down from 52 percent in December 2022. Zelensky’s popularity rose sharply after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, when he refused to leave Kiev even as Russian special forces reached the edge of the capital. His popularity was boosted significantly after Ukraine’s success in pushing back Russian forces in late 2022, with 84 percent of Ukrainians saying they trusted him at the time, according to INSK. Now, Zelensky’s popularity has fallen to 62 percent as the war drags on and its outcome is uncertain.
While still high, further declines in confidence in him could spell trouble for Zelensky if he seeks re-election. Presidential elections in Ukraine were scheduled to be held in the spring, but they will be postponed after the state of war imposed after the Russian invasion.
At a press conference on December 19, before the draft law on mobilization was submitted, Zelensky reported that Ukraine’s military leadership had submitted a proposal to add up to 500.000 additional troops, adding that he wanted an explanation for such a large request. A few days later, the Chief of the General Staff, Valeriy Zaluzhniy, stressed the need for more conscription to help those who have been at the front for a long time and to cover expected losses in the coming year. He said that the General Staff had consulted with the Ministry of Defense on the draft law, but the final version belonged to the government, as the military has no legislative powers. Druzenko predicts that the presidential administration and the military will throw responsibility for the bill at each other like “a hot potato.”
In an interview with Radio Free Europe, Iryna Friz, an opposition member from the European Solidarity bloc, said Zelensky is trying to shirk responsibility for the bill to maintain his popularity.
Oleksandr Korniyenko, first deputy speaker of Parliament and former head of the People’s Servant, rejected the idea that Zelensky was trying to escape responsibility, adding that the bill was a product of cooperation with the military. However, Zelensky abdicated responsibility for the mobilization bill. On December 26, he said that “it is right” for the deputies and the army to decide on the number of troops and other needs for the next year in open sessions of the Parliament. He also stated that his office will “wait for the final text of the law”.
MOBILIZATION MEASURES
The draft law on mobilization calls for lowering the age limit for conscripts from 27 to 25, banning the exemption of citizens with minor disabilities from military service, legalizing digital notifications of military service invitations, and restricting the ability of those who evade military service to carry out transactions such as buying or selling property. The bill places greater responsibility on local governments for mobilizing troops. Experts said local leaders may delay implementing the law for fear of a blow to their popularity. Meanwhile, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhaylo Fedorov hastened to declare that the government’s super-app, Diia, launched under his leadership and downloaded by millions of Ukrainians, will not be used to send military call-up notifications.
Opposition MPs have expressed criticism of some aspects of the bill, such as the restriction on financial transactions, and many expect the final version of the law to contain other changes.
The bill is expected to pass its first reading before January 14. Some experts predict the law will be approved by the end of the month. Ukraine has banned most men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country, but some continue to do so, paying off border guards or other officials. Some avoid mandatory military service with medical reports that can be purchased, while others ignore the call. The difficulties in recruiting Ukrainian men have prompted police to round up those who have evaded the call, creating scenes that – when they go viral on social media – spark backlash against the authorities. Although a third of Ukrainians said they are willing to take up arms to defend their country, according to a poll, Yevhen Holovakha, director of the Institute of Sociology of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, told Radio Free Europe that people might act differently if they actually receive the invitation to compulsory military service.
According to him, pessimism has increased among Ukrainians in recent months, after the few results of last summer’s counteroffensives. Holovakha said officials and the media had created unrealistic public expectations of success.
At the same time, the number of people willing to serve would be greater if the recruitment process was fair and transparent, he said. People want to know why they are being drafted, how long they will be required to serve, how much they will earn, how much their families will receive and what will happen when they return, he said.
“People get sick from uncertainty,” Holovakha said. “And this stress and these illnesses, both physical and psychological, most often arise from the fact that they live in uncertainty.” Dozens of wives and mothers of fighters took to the streets earlier this year on two occasions in rare wartime protests to demand the demobilization of their loved ones and the conscription of young men. Under martial law imposed after the Russian-led invasion, public protests are prohibited. President Zelensky has tried to address public concerns about the mobilization process. He earlier this year dismissed the heads of Regional recruitment offices after allegations of corruption. He has also expressed a desire to see the General Staff’s plan for mobilization.
Holovakha said that Zelensky is acting carefully, given the very difficult situation he is in.
TENSIONS
The debate over the bill and who takes responsibility for it could worsen already tense relations between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. The military leader told The Economist in November that the war was at a stalemate, a grim assessment that undermined the presidential administration’s more optimistic view of Ukraine’s progress and the complicated efforts to secure military aid from the United States. Zelensky immediately rejected the claim that the war was at a stalemate, while members of his administration warned the military against making such public comments.
Last month, Maryana Bezuhla, deputy chairwoman of the Parliamentary Defense Committee and a member of Zelensky’s party, publicly criticized Zaluzhny for allegedly failing to present a 2024 war plan while calling for greater mobilization. She raised the possibility of his impeachment, which some took as a message from the presidential administration.
Oleksiy Haran, director of research at the Ilko Kucheriv Foundation for Democratic Initiatives, told Radio Free Europe that Zaluzhny’s dismissal would backfire on the administration, as the military leader enjoys a higher popularity rating than the president. Holovakha said Ukrainians attribute their nation’s victories in the war to Zaluzhny, and it would be difficult for Zelensky to convince the public otherwise. Haran said that Zaluzhny’s dismissal would be “a failure, first of all, for Zelensky”.