In May 2021, when Pedro Sánchez hosted Polisario leader Brahim Ghali as head of state, Morocco reacted by triggering a migration crisis. Around 10 migrants flocked to Ceuta
On July 20, 2026, the Spanish prime minister was welcomed with an official ceremony in Algeria. This time, about 60 people set off for Ceuta. The repeated crises in the Spanish enclave seem to follow the same political rhythm. At the center of them is the rivalry between Rabat and Algiers, which also includes Madrid, especially over the issue of Western Sahara. Once a Spanish colony, the territory was hastily abandoned after the death of dictator Francisco Franco and was invaded by King Hassan II through the “Green March” in November 1975. Algeria, supported at the time by the socialist bloc, financed and trained the Sahrawi fighters of the Polisario Front, who demanded independence with weapons in hand. Many of them ended up in refugee camps in the Algerian province of Tindouf, near the border with their homeland. There, they have been living for more than five decades in dilapidated tents, constantly battered by sandstorms. The camps bear the names of coastal towns that their residents can only dream of from afar. Many children suffer from serious vision problems, including cataracts, as a result of the desert dust.
Every time Spain approaches Algeria or the Polisario, a migration crisis erupts. It is like a valve that King Mohammed VI can open or close according to his interests. This time the wave was greater than ever and is not linked to a single event. However, relations between Madrid and Rabat have deteriorated significantly over the past four years.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Sánchez government moved even closer to Algeria to secure alternative natural gas supplies. Spain subsequently became one of Israel’s harshest critics of the war in Gaza, officially recognizing the state of Palestine. Meanwhile, Morocco, which joined the Abraham Accords along with the United Arab Emirates in 2019, took a much more moderate stance.
Finally, Sánchez also opposed Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump’s war on Iran. He refused to use US bases on Spanish territory for military operations, creating logistical difficulties for the Pentagon, which was forced to rely on the UK for supplies and could not use Spanish bases for strategic bombers. This stance combined Morocco’s traditional resentment with that of the US administration. Trump has repeatedly threatened Sánchez with tariffs, sanctions, the interruption of trade relations, and even exclusion from NATO. A prime minister who legalizes half a million immigrants with a single decree is the ideal target for the sovereignist right. Attacks on him on the issue of immigration also mobilize the MAGA world, which, although often opposed to military interventions in the Middle East, immediately flares up when it comes to immigrants.
POLITICAL BATTLE
Ceuta is the perfect terrain for this political battle. From this reality to the claim that the crisis was deliberately organized is only one step, but it remains fraught with conspiracy theories. However, beyond the doubts there are also concrete elements. As The New York Times has reported, several young Moroccans, including Youssef Alaoui, 26, have stated by name that they were urged by Moroccan authorities, including police and security forces, to cross the border, with the words: “Go, go.”
It therefore seems clear that Rabat wanted to send a message to Madrid and exert political pressure, also taking advantage of the decision of the Spanish court that makes it more difficult to automatically return migrants arriving by sea in Ceuta and Melilla. Whether this was coordinated with Washington remains unproven. However, there is another element that weighs on this crisis, the sea straits. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has brought the strategic importance of sea routes back into the spotlight. Freedom of navigation, considered for decades as guaranteed, is now being challenged from many directions. For the Persian Gulf, there is already talk of a model similar to the Strait of Malacca near Singapore, where shipping companies could be forced to contribute financially to the safety of passage. Ceuta came under Spanish control from Portugal, which had conquered the city from the Merinid Sultanate in 1415.
Today it constitutes the southern gateway to the Strait of Gibraltar. A point that in the era of globalization seemed to have lost its former importance, but which today has returned to the center of geopolitical rivalries. Morocco continues to claim Ceuta and Melilla. Spain has never given up its claims to Gibraltar. The naval fortresses have regained the strategic importance they had centuries ago. And they are once again the object of greed for everyone.
DOES MOROCCO INTEND TO TAKE CEUTÊ AND MELILLA?
While thousands of Moroccan migrants who entered Ceuta are rapidly returning to Morocco, it remains unclear why Moroccan authorities initially allowed the mass crossing to the Spanish enclave and then allowed them to return unhindered. This situation has fueled speculation that the crisis could also be linked to Rabat’s long-standing territorial claims to Ceuta and Melilla. According to analyses published in Moroccan media close to the Royal Palace, the two Spanish exclaves in North Africa are described as “occupied cities”, while their return under Moroccan sovereignty is described as an inevitable development.
The Moroccan portal Le360 considered the Spanish presence in Ceuta and Melilla an “anomaly”, while in Hespress, Yahya Yahya, head of the National Committee for the Reintegration of the Two Enclaves, stated that the way the Spanish authorities managed the crisis showed “the fragility of Spain’s presence in the Region”.
The debate has also been fueled by statements from figures close to the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement in the United States. In March, analyst Michael Rubin proposed that the US administration recognize Ceuta and Melilla as Moroccan territories, even suggesting the organization of a “green wave” of thousands of people who would enter Ceuta. A month later, Republican congressman Mario Diaz-Balart declared that the two exclaves are located in the geographical territory of Morocco and that their future should be determined through negotiations between allies. Meanwhile, a report by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies warned that Moroccan military pressure south of Gibraltar is now a reality and called for the development of a special defense plan for Ceuta and Melilla.
Although since 2022 Madrid has improved relations with Rabat, supporting the Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara, analysts note that Spain has not received clear guarantees for the status and security of its two exclaves in North Africa.