NATO has revealed the main elements of its military strategy for confronting a possible Russian attack on member countries, presenting a three-phase plan aimed at stopping aggression without expanding the conflict into the adversary’s territory.
According to the New York Times, the supreme commander of Allied forces in Europe, American General Alexus G. Grynkewich, summed up the strategy in three words: “Contain, repel, and destroy.”
Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, he stressed that NATO does not consider military confrontation with Russia to be either inevitable or imminent, despite the intensification of sabotage, cyberattacks, arson and disinformation campaigns targeting European countries supporting Ukraine.
However, the general declared that he had decided to make public the basic principles of NATO’s classified war plan, known as the “victory theory”, to strengthen the confidence of the citizens of the 32 member countries.
“I want to assure the one billion citizens of our Alliance that we have the situation under control. We know what to do and how to do it,” Grynkewich declared.
The three phases of NATO’s strategy
The plan draws on the experiences of the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, combining precision weapons with the massive use of drones, autonomous systems and electronic warfare technologies.
The first phase, “blockade”, envisages the immediate halt of an attack on the border, to prevent the invasion of the territory of member countries.
In the second phase, “recoil,” Allied forces would strike the attacking troops from the air, land, and sea to disrupt their advance.
The third phase, “destroy,” would be activated if the aggression continues. It aims to neutralize the attacking forces by striking the supplies, communications, and command networks that support frontline operations.
Grynkewich emphasized that NATO’s objective is not to occupy the opponent’s territory, but to stop aggression.
“Implementing the theory of victory I described today would require me to give orders that I hope I never have to give,” he declared.
Trump and the divisions in policy towards Moscow
According to a New York Times analysis, the presentation of the strategy also highlighted the contradictions between NATO’s military planning and the Trump administration’s diplomacy.
The US president’s decision to unilaterally ease sanctions on Russia in order to purchase diesel fuel has raised concerns about weakening economic pressure on the Kremlin.
While Ukraine and European countries support maintaining military and economic pressure on Moscow, Trump has favored direct deals with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Ukraine’s weakening would directly undermine European security.
“Anyone who, for whatever reason – betrayal, stupidity or money – wants to weaken Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression is clearly acting against their own nation, the security of their own state and their sovereignty,” Tusk declared.
Asked whether Europe could rely on Washington in the event of an attack, Grynkewich dismissed doubts, citing the presence of thousands of American soldiers on NATO’s eastern flank and the commitment to collective defense under Article 5.
Meanwhile, the head of the Czech counterintelligence service, Michal Koudelka, warned that Russia could escalate its operations within months, not ruling out limited military action against a NATO country in the future.
Moscow has repeatedly dismissed European warnings. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared in September that Russia has no intention of fighting against Europe, but claimed that it is Europe itself that is preparing for war.