For decades, the European Union has operated under an unwritten agreement: Germany handled the economy, France the military. Today, that order is being reversed.
As Germany aims to become Europe’s leading military power, the political balance is shifting. France is struggling to maintain its relevance, while in Poland, German rearmament is reviving old memories and creating the idea that a Berlin-Warsaw axis might be the most effective way to contain Russia. “Everywhere I go, from the Baltics to Asia, everyone is asking Germany to take on more responsibility,” said Christoph Schmid, a German Social Democrat lawmaker. “There is an expectation that Germany will finally match its economic weight with its defensive power.”
GERMANY TOWARDS EUROPE’S LARGEST ARMY
From a weak and poorly equipped Bundeswehr, Germany is transforming into a genuine military power. This military power also means political and economic influence, and Europe will have to adapt to a dominant Germany. By 2029, Germany is expected to spend 153 billion euros a year on defense, about 3.5% of GDP, the largest military expansion since reunification. In comparison: France is aiming for about 80 billion euros by 2030. Poland is spending 4.7% of GDP this year, the highest level in NATO, and is building one of the largest and most modern armies on the continent.
Meanwhile, Germany has plenty of fiscal space to arm itself: France’s debt has exceeded 110% of GDP, its deficit is over 5%, and Poland is struggling with the cost of increasing military spending. One EU official called this shift in German military potential a fundamental change. Another diplomat put it more simply: “It is the most important thing happening at the EU level today.” Is Germany building a European military power… or a German one? Most of the new money for weapons is staying at home.
Internal documents obtained by POLITICO show that Berlin is preparing to approve 83 billion euros in defense contracts by the end of 2026, from tanks and frigates to drones, satellites and radars. This is just the first phase. Behind it lies a “wish list” of 377 billion euros, which includes more than 320 new weapons programs. Less than 10% of the contracts will go to American companies, a drastic change after years when Germany was among the top customers of the United States. The vast majority will go to European industry, especially German.
FRANCE CONCERNED: A GERMANY ARMED TO THE TEETH
In Paris, German rearmament is being met with a mixture of distrust and fear. “In France, every official is at the end of the day also a defense official,” said an EU official, underscoring France’s security culture. Franco-German relations remain fragile. A French defense official said: “It’s a combination of vigilance and intimidation. Germany will be very dominant.”
Disagreements over the largest joint military project, the next-generation FCAS aircraft, have only deepened the gap. Germany is considering alternative cooperation with Sweden, Britain or even just Spain, which alarms Paris. For France, FCAS is not just a technical project; it is linked to France’s nuclear arsenal and its claim to military leadership in Europe. “If Germany excludes us, doesn’t that worry you?” the CEO of Dassault Aviation told French lawmakers.
POLAND: CAREFUL BUT CLEAR
In Warsaw, German rearmament is seen as necessary, but always with reservations. “We can’t ask everyone to spend more on defense, except Germany,” said a former Polish ambassador. But memories of the war and suspicion of Merkel’s old pro-Russian policy remain strong. Poland’s deputy defense minister, Paweł Zalewski, said: “Germany combining economic power with military power has always been a cause for fear. This time it has to be seen in context: the whole of Europe is rearming.”
He also warned about the influence of the AfD, the German far-right party, pro-Putin and with territorial revisionist ideas: “We cannot open this discussion in Europe. World War II started like this.”
THE NEW CENTER OF GRAVITY IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE EAST
If Germany becomes Europe’s military engine, while Poland rises as NATO’s main land power, the European balance is shifting. The question in Brussels is: Can the EU channel this momentum towards a common defense, or will military fragmentation deepen? For most diplomats, one thing is clear: “It may seem scary, no doubt. But Germany is part of the EU and NATO, and anything can happen until then.” (Politico.eu)