Trump wants victory at all costs. And the Iranians intend to stubbornly deny him that. There are two opponents who do not understand each other and keep the world occupied by this war. The problem is that Trump and his people do not have a plan and think that threats are enough. In fact, bombing is not enough. It is also impossible to imagine the possibility of an invasion of Iran, a country of 90 million inhabitants, with thousands of soldiers
At a time when the conflict between the US and Iran has reached a turning point, diplomacy remains the only hope for a long-term solution. Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and currently a renowned expert on international politics, speaks in this interview with La Repubblica about the tense situation and the challenges facing US President Donald Trump.
He points out that the war has entered an unusual situation, where neither side is willing to give up and neither fully understands the other’s goals and limitations. Haqqani sees recent developments as a situation that keeps the world “occupied” and urgently requires a new diplomatic approach, including a combination of sanctions, threats, and direct negotiations.
In this interview, Haqqani explains that Trump is focused on an immediate and spectacular victory, but this approach could be an obstacle to a lasting solution.
According to him, Iran is standing strong and ready to continue the asymmetric war, while many Gulf states, as well as US allies, are worried and looking for a clear plan to exit the crisis. He also discusses Pakistan’s role in mediation and his hope that one day an agreement can be reached, although this seems distant.
There is a fuel alarm in Europe. But the end of the war is not in sight?
Unfortunately, the conflict has become a struggle between Tehran’s fanatical resistance and the US president’s ability to cope with low approval ratings, a negative stock market and ever-higher oil prices. The one who resists the most will win. Of course, no one likes war. Two days ago, with his speech in which he said nothing new, Trump irritated many Americans, European and Gulf allies who were expecting a turnaround from him, as well as the Iranians. The truth is that he only listens to the mood of his base. If I were to make a prediction, the war will end when the MAG world says “enough.”
What makes Trump think this?
Trump wants victory at all costs. And the Iranians intend to stubbornly deny him that. There are two opponents who do not understand each other and keep the world occupied by this war. The problem is that Trump and his people do not have a plan and think that threats are enough. In fact, bombing is not enough. It is also impossible to imagine the possibility of an invasion of Iran, a country of 90 million inhabitants, with thousands of soldiers. It seems that the US has forgotten how the situation went in Iraq, where its forces were more numerous.
Trump has spoken about the next 4-6 weeks, that there will be peace?
Because he will do something spectacular to say that he has gone further, by carrying out the threats. Only then will he declare victory. But in the meantime, Iran is standing its ground: and continuing its asymmetric war, attacking the Gulf countries. These countries are worried and are already looking for time, a strategy, an exit plan. With Trump, however, it is a matter of selfishness. They must convince him that the situation is serious and that it is better to get out of the crisis than to deepen it.
How can this be done?
It is true that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, nor continue to be a threat to Israel and the surrounding Arab countries. But what is needed is a combination of sanctions, threats, and negotiations. So far, the Americans have not shown that they have the capacity for a multi-pronged strategy.
Has your country, Pakistan, committed to mediating?
Pakistan has relayed the messages exchanged between the US and Iran. A second round of messages was expected, and instead came Trump’s impossible stances in his speech, which was followed by a harsh Iranian response. Islamabad and Beijing have also drawn up a five-point plan, but so far the gap between the parties is too wide. Tehran does not believe, it seeks guarantees. It has not engaged in talks. However, it listens. And this is our only hope for reaching an agreement. The day of peace will come. But not soon.
And in the meantime?
The conflict will continue. Also because Tehran has realized that the United States is not strong enough. It has not been able to overthrow the regime. The moment is difficult. But that is precisely what diplomacy exists for: to resolve the most complicated situations. (La Republica)