British aviation, with the largest number of passengers on the continent, is currently most exposed to the energy crisis. If supplies from the Gulf “cannot be replaced, the United Kingdom could be left without fuel reserves within three months”, that is, by June, the Argus company calculates.
European countries have somewhere between three and eight months of fuel reserves for aircraft. But some governments do not rule out the possibility of introducing rationing measures, in the extreme scenario (described as “far-fetched”), with a reduction in flights from May or June, possibly starting with private jet flights before regular routes are affected. This emerges from preliminary internal assessments circulating among several civil aviation authorities in Europe, according to community sources.
A MONTH OF CRISIS. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the outbreak of war between the US and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other, has reduced the number of tankers passing through the strait to almost zero: from an average of 60 per day (until February 28) to a maximum of just a few, according to IMF data. Among them are dozens of ships that, in addition to oil, transport thousands of barrels of oil to Europe.
JET FUEL IMPORTS. By 2025, according to a report by Scope Ratings, the Persian Gulf “supplied 43% of European jet fuel imports, with the greatest dependence on Spain, Italy and Greece, countries that rely on tanker routes through the Suez Canal and the eastern Mediterranean.” Meanwhile, Northern European hubs “supplied mainly by Atlantic refineries and pipeline networks are relatively more sheltered.”
SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY. British aviation, with the largest number of passengers on the continent, is currently most exposed to the energy crisis. If supplies from the Gulf “cannot be replaced, the United Kingdom could be left without fuel reserves within three months”, that is, by June, the Argus company calculates.
Portugal could run out in four months, Hungary in five, Denmark in six. Italy and Germany have about seven months of reserves, while France and Ireland have eight. “Refinery closures have weakened the balance of the jet fuel market in Western Europe, while demand has increased,” Argus recalls.
SCENARIOS. Argus explains that “it is unlikely that the conflict in the Middle East will lead a European country to a complete depletion of refined products, because the war only limits a part of the import sources”. But “national reserves could fall to dangerously low levels, causing local shortages and sharper price fluctuations”.
NATIONAL STRATEGIES. Countries where production equals or exceeds consumption, such as Poland and Greece, “can operate with lower reserves because they are less dependent on imports.” While countries that depend on imports but have larger reserves, such as Ireland, are more protected.
SEASONAL FACTOR. Reserves are also affected by the season: “they usually fall in the spring and fall due to refinery maintenance, and rise in the summer when production increases.”
PRICE RISING. On April 2, a ton of jet fuel in Europe was selling for $1903, an 18.4% increase from the previous day and 130% more than on February 27, on the eve of the conflict. This is the highest level since July 1991.
“But a hedge contract against price fluctuations does not secure a single liter of fuel if the supplier is unable to deliver it,” warns Scope Ratings. Physical access depends on the infrastructure chain: refinery output, tanker routes, pipeline integrity and actual volume in storage.
FEAR OF AN OPERATIONAL CRISIS. “An escalation of the conflict that breaks any link in this chain creates an operational crisis that no defense program can resolve,” analysts add.
EUROPEAN AIRPORTS. Airports are not reporting any problems, but are increasingly concerned about access to fuel. “The longer the hostilities continue, the greater the impact on demand will be, with rising prices and possible shortages,” Eurocontrol warns.
POSSIBLE OPTIONS. Several options are on the table: initially, restricting private aviation, which consumes 5-8% of fuel in Europe. As a last resort, before a total blockade, essential connections to/from the islands will be protected.
POLITICAL DECISION. Any such decision would only be made with the “political” approval of the European Commission, which would issue a Notam (notice to airmen) with the start and end dates of the measures. For the moment, this remains only a theoretical scenario.
EU CAN REACH OIL WITH RATION, WAR WILL CONTINUE FOR A LONG TIME
The European Union’s energy commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, says the bloc is assessing all options to deal with the long-term energy shock of the Middle East war. In an interview with the Financial Times, Jorgensen said that fuel rationing and releasing more oil from emergency reserves are among the options under consideration. “This is going to be a long crisis. Energy prices are going to be higher for a very long time and countries need to make sure they have what they need,” said Dan Jorgensen, the European energy commissioner.
The situation has forced governments to draw up plans to support consumers and has prompted some countries to restart coal-fired power plants. Asked about the possibility of changing European regulations for one of the most affected sectors, jet fuel, which requires specific conditions to be stored, the commissioner said that all options remain open.
“We are looking at all options and it is clear that the more serious the situation becomes, the more we will certainly have to look at legislative means,” the commissioner added. Jorgensen did not rule out another release of strategic energy reserves if the situation worsens. EU countries participated in the largest release of oil reserves in history last month in an attempt to cushion rising prices. Today, Brent crude is selling for around $110 a barrel. (Corriere della Sera)