Since February 24, 2022, Poland has become Europe’s vanguard against Putin’s aggression. Not only because it shares a 535-kilometer border with Ukraine and over 400 kilometers with Belarus, Moscow’s military ally. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Warsaw has lived as if it were already at war, even without tanks on the streets. On the front line, not only geographically, but also militarily
If there was ever a moment and a place when Poland realized that the world as we knew it was about to change, it was August 2021, in the Białowieża Forest, on the border with Belarus. Suddenly, out of nowhere, thousands of migrants began pouring into the country, pushed back by Belarusian guards, blocked by Polish forces, and stranded for weeks in the cold of Europe’s last prehistoric forest. It was then that authorities in Warsaw first spoke of an escalation of Russia’s hybrid war against Poland. But the world had no idea that just a few months later Russia would invade Ukraine, and attention was focused on the 142 migrants who froze to death – and on Poland’s early distrust of Russia.
Today we know that this was a fabricated and manipulated crisis by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vassal, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who was meanwhile amassing troops and resources ahead of the “special operation.” And today we also know that Warsaw was right to raise the alarm about Russian aggression. “All countries bordering Russia have a more sensitive seismograph. We feel the danger first. If Russia attacks, we are the first in line. That is why we are more vigilant,” explained writer Witold Szabłowski.
ON THE FIRST GEOGRAPHICAL LINE
Since February 24, 2022, Poland has become Europe’s vanguard against Putin’s aggression. Not only because it shares a 535-kilometer border with Ukraine and over 400 kilometers with Belarus, Moscow’s military ally. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Warsaw has lived as if it were already at war, even without tanks on the streets. On the front line, not only geographically, but also militarily. The drone incursion in the early hours of Wednesday morning, September 10, is simply the latest – albeit the most serious – attack on Kiev’s main ally. Every day, security services say, Poles suffer the consequences of Russia’s hybrid warfare: cyberattacks, sabotage, uncontrolled drones and propaganda.
In 2022, immediately after the invasion, the National Cyber Security Agency “Cert Polska” recorded over 29,000 serious cyber incidents – a 70% increase compared to the previous year. In 2023 the figure increased again, while in 2024 Warsaw reported at least 15 acts of sabotage linked to Russian intelligence: fires in logistics warehouses, disruptions of railway lines leading to Ukraine, and even attacks on energy infrastructure. On March 18, 2024, a fuel depot in Wrocław burst into flames, and in Warsaw everyone still remembers the fire at the Marywilska 44 shopping mall in May 2024: 1,400 shops and an entire megastructure were leveled. “A Russian terrorist act,” the investigation concluded.
DANGEROUS NEIGHBOR
And then there are the drones. In late August 2025, two Russian UAVs were shot down over Podlaskie, near the border with Belarus. It was not the first time: since February 2022, Warsaw has reported 20 airspace violations. “An act of aggression,” said Donald Tusk, who in September announced the temporary closure of the border with Minsk.
Being the West’s first bastion also means giving more than anyone else. Since 2022, Poland has given Ukraine more weapons, relative to GDP, than any other European country. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Warsaw has transferred military equipment worth over 4 billion euros: more than 350 tanks, including Leopard 2, PT-91 and T-72; nearly 300 armored vehicles; and over a hundred artillery pieces. Not to mention ammunition and missiles.
“An investment in our security,” repeats Defense Minister Radosław Sikorski, who often sounds tired reminding everyone that support for Kiev and resistance to Russian aggression are now embedded in Poland’s DNA.
AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT
In no other European country is distrust of Russia as deep as in Poland. It is not simply a matter of politics, but also of historical memory. Poland has always been a land of conquest. In the 17th century it was ruled by tsars; in the 18th century it was wiped off the map through partitions; in the 19th century it was oppressed and Russified. Every generation has had its own trauma from Moscow. The 20th century confirmed this: the war of 1920, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Katyn, the arrival of the Red Army in 1945 – followed by another occupation that lasted until 1989. Even the Smolensk tragedy in 2010 reopened wounds and doubts.
For Warsaw, Russia is not a partner across the table, but an existential threat. That is why today it is the most anti-Russian capital in Europe: it supports Kiev, invests more than 3% of GDP in defense, closes borders and erects barriers. Convinced that once Ukraine falls, its turn will come.
THE SHADOW OF ORBÁN
The border is also political, a connection to countries that share a Soviet past, such as the Baltic states. But the Visegrad bloc is no longer united: with Viktor Orbán’s Hungary maintaining close ties to Moscow, Warsaw has taken on the role of Ukraine’s advocate in the EU, pushing for enlargement to include Ukraine and Moldova and supporting greater joint defense funding.
Relations with Prague and Bratislava remain unstable. The natural axis is with the Baltic states and Germany, despite the remaining distrust. Even with tensions between Prime Minister Tusk and the new President Nawrocki, the sense of threat keeps society united. Poland aims to invest 4% of GDP in defense by 2026. It has signed billion-dollar contracts with South Korea and the United States for new tanks, Patriot systems and aircraft. A rearmament program that Tusk calls a “guarantee of survival” and that is transforming Poland into the largest land military power in the European Union.