When the results of the United Kingdom referendum were announced on the morning of June 24, 2016, a wave of disbelief spread across the European Union (EU), and especially in Germany. Almost 52 percent of British voters voted to leave the EU, while 48 percent voted against. Former German Foreign Minister and current President Frank-Walter Steinmeier called the result a “disaster,” while former Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke of a “heavy blow for Europe.” Only a minority in Germany expected such a result. Most politicians and journalists considered the idea of a country voluntarily leaving the European Union and thus giving up the benefits of the European single market unthinkable. In Germany, in particular, the British campaign to “take back control,” led by Conservative politician Boris Johnson, was underplayed.
Brexiteers wanted to take control of immigration into the country. As a result, the referendum result had a clear German dimension. Chancellor Merkel’s open-border policy has meant that since September 2015, naturalised migrants have automatically gained the right to reside in the UK. “Migration policy was one of the main factors influencing the Brexit decision,” says Christophe Fricker of the University of Bristol, who has published extensively on Brexit. But he also points out “the irony that after Brexit, immigration numbers have risen sharply again, except that these are no longer citizens of EU member states.”
GERMAN-BRITISH TRADE HAS DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY
After years of negotiations, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 31, 2020. The final “separation” from the single market and customs union took effect on January 1, 2021. The change is particularly noticeable in trade between Germany and the United Kingdom. According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, trade has fallen sharply since Brexit. While the United Kingdom was Germany’s fifth most important trading partner in 2016, it is now in ninth place. But according to Christoph Fricker, Germany has not only lost a strong trading partner. “What has been lost is a strong partner in the field of defense. This is precisely the area where cooperation is starting again. In addition, friends have been lost. There was a very close interpersonal and socio-civil connection. Today, it is weaker and harder to maintain.” Fricker adds that among young Germans, the United Kingdom has since “disappeared from the radar.”
NEW COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF DEFENSE
But the process of rapprochement has long been underway. German-British trade is governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom, and is therefore not the responsibility of the governments of individual EU member states. The two countries have also been drawing closer at the bilateral level, mainly through two agreements focusing on the defence partnership. The process began with the Trinity House Agreement, signed in October 2024, which strengthened cooperation in the field of defence. The cooperation was further expanded in July 2025 by the Kensington Agreement, a treaty of friendship aimed at an overall deepening of British-German relations. A significant moment for bilateral relations after Brexit was also the three-day state visit of King Charles III to Berlin and Hamburg in May 2023. During the visit, Charles delivered the first speech by a British monarch to the German Bundestag, partly in German.
TWO PRAGMATISTS
Two politicians from different political families are currently at the helm of the two governments: Keir Starmer (the outgoing prime minister) comes from the Social Democratic Labour Party, and Friedrich Merz from the conservative CDU. Despite this, they have a lot in common, according to Linn Selle from the German Foreign Policy Association. “Starmer, like Merz, is a pragmatist. Both are linked by a strong support for Ukraine,” Selle told DW. “Merz, also strongly shaped by the Anglo-Saxon political environment, has followed Brexit closely and certainly wants a closer political connection between the United Kingdom and the European Union.”
Fricker adds: “What connects them is the classic way of thinking of the political center, which was probably decisive for both during the election campaigns. Unfortunately, they are also connected by a certain ambiguity in approach.” According to him, Merz often does not implement things after political speeches, while Starmer has no clear leadership in the current international crisis situation. A new referendum on the EU is not a problem. Merz and Starmer are facing pressure from the right, as well as from their own parties. In the United Kingdom, according to polls, the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, has significantly outperformed the Labour Party, while in Germany the AfD has outperformed the CDU/CSU. Farage was one of the main instigators of leaving the EU, and the AfD also takes a very skeptical stance towards the European Union. Starmer announced his resignation as head of government in London on Monday (22 June) due to domestic political pressure.
Linn Selle believes that the influence of foreign politicians on the political situation in the United Kingdom should not be overestimated. “But there is no doubt that it will be in Merz’s interest to strengthen the pro-European voice in the United Kingdom through pragmatic rapprochement with the European Union.”
HOW WOULD A REFERENDUM ON EXIT FROM THE EU END TODAY?
“There has been a recent shift in opinion polls, and it seems that the majority is in favor of remaining in the EU. This majority is becoming more and more stable,” says Fricker. “Many people here have realized that leaving was not a good idea and it hurt them.” But no leading British politician from the main parties has launched any concrete projects in this direction. Therefore, the German government must live with the existing situation and in the future, together with the British, try to do the best in the current conditions – as long as there is no government in London that wants to return to the EU. (DW)