Those hoping that the Ukrainian drone strikes will force Putin to change his stance or seek compromise may be disappointed. The Russian president believes he can take by force on the battlefield what he said was promised to him at the Anchorage meeting with Donald Trump, without first getting Kiev’s agreement on territorial issues.
Vladimir Putin should never be associated with any failure. He should not comment on it, should not talk about it, should not give the impression that something went wrong. This was one of the rules laid down by Gleb Pavlovsky, the former dissident turned “political technologist” who in the early 2000s helped build Putin’s image as Russia’s new president. He later deeply regretted his role.
That is why, in 2000, Putin postponed as long as possible his visit to Kursk, the site of the nuclear submarine disaster that killed 118 Russian sailors in the Barents Sea. Similarly, in 2024, he did not even go near the concert hall in Moscow where Islamic terrorists killed about 150 people. This is a behavior that Putin continues to follow. “He has few ideas, but he implements them to the end,” Pavlovsky said in one of his last conversations before his death in January 2023.
DRONE ATTACKS AND THE KREMLIN’S SILENCE
Even yesterday, June 23, Putin chose not to directly comment on the Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, attacks that spread around the world and that for some people created the impression that the war may be changing in Kiev’s favor.
He made only a brief comment during a Kremlin meeting with military school graduates, but the message was clear: Our soldiers on the front line know it – our boys are putting them under pressure on all lines of contact. There is nowhere else the situation is the other way around. These drones and these attacks on civilian infrastructure only serve to destabilize our society and create uncertainty around our military. But on the front line, our boys are striking every day. And we will get where we need to get.
PUTIN ONLY LISTENS TO THE ARMY PEOPLE
According to the analysis, Putin mainly trusts the information he receives from people “on the ground”, especially from the top leaders of the Russian army. In recent months, he has spent a lot of time with commanders and officials of the General Staff, who inform him about the situation on the front. For him, today the war in Donbass is of primary importance. Other issues, including the attacks on Moscow, seem secondary.
During his speech to the new officers, the only Ukrainian city he mentioned was not Moscow or St. Petersburg, but Kostyantynivka in the Donbas region. Putin claimed that Russia was taking over the area and said: “We are occupying it.” Although there are still people hiding in basements and shooting. According to him, this is why Ukraine continues to call it a “gray zone.”
NO CHANGE IN STRATEGY IS EXPECTED
Those hoping that the Ukrainian drone strikes will force Putin to change his stance or seek compromise may be disappointed. The Russian president believes he can take by force on the battlefield what he said was promised to him at the Anchorage meeting with Donald Trump, without first obtaining Kiev’s agreement on territorial issues.
Putin reiterated that a diplomatic solution would be better, but blamed the West, especially Europe, for obstructing an agreement by aiming for Russia’s “strategic defeat.”
He said Russia is ready for peace negotiations based on: the agreements discussed in Istanbul in 2022, the talks in Anchorage, and “reality on the ground.” In practice, this means Moscow is seeking an agreement that gives it the occupied territories and that, according to critics, would be more of a surrender of Ukraine than a compromise.
“RUSSIA AGAINST EVERYONE”
Putin continues to portray the situation as a confrontation not only with Ukraine, but with the entire West. He said that Western countries are preparing for war against Russia by increasing military spending. “The West creates threats against Russia, forces us to take defensive measures, and then accuses us of everything to justify its aggressive actions,” he says.
THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME: RUSSIA IS UNDER THREAT AND MUST CONTINUE THE WAR!
Discontent within Russian elites over the prolongation of the war and the damage from Ukrainian drone attacks, which receive a lot of attention outside of Russia, are just “background noise” for Putin.