For those familiar with military and security issues, these messages send signals of fear and insecurity to the region, increase the perception of threat, and push neighboring countries to strengthen their defense capabilities.
The arms race has existed for centuries, but after World War II it took on a global and systematic form, especially between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and fighter jets transformed the way power was conceived in the years that followed. Today, in the Western Balkans region, Serbia’s moves send serious warnings.
The country – a NATO partner and candidate for European Union membership – has purchased supersonic ballistic missiles from China for its air force. It has become the first power in Europe to be equipped with the CM-400AKG air-to-ground missiles, according to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. “We have successfully integrated Chinese missiles into Russian fourth-generation MiG-29 aircraft. These are today among the best aircraft in Europe – perhaps even in the world. Air-to-ground missiles mean hitting targets on the ground and have destructive power,” Vučić said on March 12. Reactions were widespread from neighbors who fought against Serbia during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.
Croatia – now a member of NATO and the European Union – considered the purchase of Chinese missiles a threat to regional stability and a sign of an increasing arms race in the Balkans, while Kosovo accused Serbia of hegemonic tendencies towards its neighbors. These two countries, along with Albania, signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of defense and security in March 2025, which Vučić sees as a direct threat to Serbia’s security – “there is no other reason for their union, only Serbia”. “We are preparing for their attack. They do not intend to defend themselves, but to attack. They are forming a military alliance to attack us”, Vučić said while speaking about the Chinese missiles on Radio-Television of Serbia. He did not present any evidence for these claims, which Zagreb, Pristina and Tirana have repeatedly rejected. He only said that the Serbian armed forces also have other sophisticated weapons at their disposal, which cannot be made public.
For those familiar with military and security issues, these messages send signals of fear and uncertainty in the region, increase the perception of threat and push neighboring countries to strengthen their defense capabilities. This dynamic, according to them, can easily turn into a new arms spiral, where every action produces a counteraction and tensions only increase. Redion Qirjazi, a security expert in Albania – a NATO member country, says that Chinese missiles give Serbia new opportunities to project power and change the balance of security in the region; they are not simply defense – as the buyer claims – but extend military capabilities over long distances. “Chinese missiles are very precise. Another worrying feature of them is their high speed – around Mach 4 to Mach 5, or up to 6 thousand km/h – which puts them in the category of missiles that are difficult to intercept,” Qirjazi tells Radio Free Europe’s Expose program.
In the Balkans, Serbia maintains open tensions with Kosovo, to which it has territorial claims, with Croatia and occasionally with Montenegro. Its relations with Albania and North Macedonia are calmer, while the relationship with Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains a special case, which differs from the rest of this country. The purchases of Chinese missiles, according to Kadri Kastrati, a military expert from Kosovo, clearly show Serbia’s tendency to position itself as the most armed and dominant actor in the Balkans and to keep the region always on the edge of destabilization. “Serbia is buying all this armament to enter the competition, first of all with Croatia. After supplying Croatia with Rafale aircraft from France, Vučić made an agreement with the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, for the purchase of such aircraft. So, it is a competition between them,” Kastrati tells Exposé.
Despite claiming military neutrality, Serbia has the most expensive military in the Western Balkans. In 2024 alone, it spent $2.2 billion – about five times more than NATO member Albania and the region’s second-largest military spender, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Serbia also spends significantly more than Croatia, which is also a NATO member. According to SIPRI, the difference in defense spending between the two countries amounts to hundreds of millions of euros each year. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Serbia shifted its arms sources, turning to China for combat drones and the FK-3 anti-aircraft missile system, but it did not stop buying from the West, such as the United States and France.
In his statements, Vučić pays special attention to Croatia’s military strength. In 2024, when Serbia bought multi-role fighter jets, the Rafale, from France, he ironically said that when Croatia does the same, it is “good news for the region”, while when Serbia buys them, it becomes a “tragedy”. “We do not create problems anywhere, we do not plan them, we do not intend them. This is a great signal of trust between France and Serbia. We just want to protect our country”, Vučić said.
Katarina Djokic, a researcher at the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, says that comparisons between Serbia and Croatia should be viewed with caution. Croatia, as a NATO member, plans its military capabilities within the alliance and pursues relevant tasks, while Serbia operates outside this mechanism. Djokic says that there is a tendency for political elites to look beyond the border and use the arming of neighbors as an alibi to justify the expansion of their power. “What is worrying – when it comes to Serbia, Kosovo and Croatia – is the irresponsible vocabulary of political elites, which increases tensions, instead of using existing regional mechanisms or creating new ones for communication and problem-solving. There is simply a tendency to move towards increasing tensions – which can be dangerous, because it also creates a sense of insecurity and fear of what might happen among citizens,” Djokic tells Exposé.
Qirjazi warns that such a climate of tension and mistrust can lead to misinterpretations by the other side, prompting quick and uncontrolled reactions. This increases the risk of escalation even without a direct intention for conflict – a situation that Qirjazi defines as “miscalculation”. “We saw this in the recent conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States, where the argument was that we had evidence that Iran would attack first, so we struck. Or – also in the case of Iraq – they were told that Saddam Hussein would create nuclear weapons and use them against allies in the region, so we will act. This is that spiral of security and escalation,” Qirjazi explains.
In response to the purchase of Chinese missiles, the European Union – which Serbia is seeking to join – said the country must make clear strategic choices on the path to integration. Meanwhile, NATO, Serbia’s partner, did not respond to Radio Free Europe’s inquiry about how it views Belgrade’s continued cooperation with Beijing. In May, the Western alliance will hold joint military exercises with Serbia at the Borovac training ground, near the border with Kosovo. In a post on social media, NATO’s Joint Force Command in Naples said the exercise would take place at Serbia’s invitation. According to it, it strengthens practical cooperation and supports stability in the Western Balkans.
For Qirjazi, this proves that Serbia is following the strategy of the “multi-gate game”. On the one hand, it opens the door to China to increase its influence in the region, and on the other hand, it cooperates with the West to create a kind of mutual dependence. “This strategy was also characteristic of the former Yugoslavia under Tito, as it maintained partnerships and alliances with many different strategic actors, in order to create a dependence of these superpowers on this country”, says Qirjazi. According to him, this approach gives Serbia more room for maneuver and puts international actors in a more complicated position in the event of a potential conflict. Djokic agrees, but highlights another aspect: One of the reasons why many countries procure weapons from China is that they are cheaper. The case of Serbia is a little more specific in terms of geography, because it is located in Europe and there are other expectations from it. “For example, I deal with West Africa and I know that there are many countries there that have excellent relations with the EU and, at the same time, they procure weapons from China, because it is cheaper,” says Djokic.
Vucic did not disclose the price of the Chinese CM-400AKG missiles, which can carry up to 200 kg of explosive material, but described them as “very expensive.”
According to the latest SIPRI report, arms purchases in Europe have increased significantly, making the continent the largest importing region – with a 210% increase between the periods 2016-2020 and 2021-2025. The United States, on the other hand, has increased its dominance in arms exports – with Kosovo one of its many customers. Kosovo Defense officials emphasize that arms purchases are made exclusively from NATO allies. (RFE)