For Israel, the long-term consequences could be felt in diplomacy and public opinion. The war jeopardizes normalization agreements with Gulf states, known as the Abraham Accords. Some Arab states could blame Israel for getting involved in a war it did not choose, while the geopolitical balance in the Region could shift significantly.
When Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on December 29 of last year, the Israeli prime minister came with a request and a not-so-secret incentive. After months of restocking air defense systems and other missiles, following the 12-day conflict in June in which the US joined in bombing Tehran’s nuclear facilities, Israel was ready to act again, this time with bigger targets.
At the press conference held by the two leaders, Trump seemed to faithfully repeat Netanyahu’s familiar points. “Now I’m hearing that Iran is trying to rebuild,” Trump said. “Then we’re going to have to hit them again. We’re going to destroy them completely. But I hope that doesn’t happen.” The Israeli leader, like others before him, came equipped with an appeal to Trump’s ego: awarding his country’s highest honor, the Israel Prize, which is rarely given to non-Israelis, for “his extraordinary contributions to Israel and the Jewish people.” According to the Atlantic magazine, Netanyahu had also suggested a benefit for the president known for his transactional approach: defeating Iran would allow Israel to reduce its heavy reliance on American military aid.
That meeting, as has now become clear from several accounts, was one of many contacts between Netanyahu and Trump in the weeks that followed, as the former sought to secure US participation in a broader conflict against Tehran, with ambitions far greater than the previous round of fighting.
A fragile and unpopular regime seemed poised to topple, shaken by internal protests with Iranians angry at the deadly crackdown on demonstrations, according to an assessment prepared by Mossad, the Israeli secret service. It would be a historic opportunity that required a short campaign. An additional benefit suggested by the Israeli leader, according to some sources, was that Trump could avenge alleged Iranian plots against his life. What is clear from subsequent developments is that Netanyahu, the self-proclaimed “expert” on Iran, and the Israeli military establishment were fully convinced of the idea of an easy war.
On February 28, the first day of the war, (unnamed) Israeli officials informed the Haaretz newspaper that the Iranian threat would fade within a few days, once the last of Iran’s missile launchers were destroyed.
Another article in the same newspaper said that Israeli military planners had been stockpiling missile defenses for a war they assumed would last no more than three weeks. Seen as a stand-alone conflict, it is as much about the United States as it is about Israel, but it is part of Israel’s war; the latest front in Netanyahu’s ongoing conflict since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. That attack changed the country’s strategic calculations. And in the Regional conflicts that have followed—in Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran—with the Houthis in Yemen and on the ground in Syria, a common pattern has emerged: Netanyahu has promised and declared victories whose reality has often proved more temporary and overblown.
In Gaza, despite a devastating campaign, a weakened Hamas still exists. In Lebanon, where Hezbollah was declared defeated, the organization retains the ability to launch rockets across the border. In Iran, despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials, the “beheading” strategy did not bring the rapid regime change promised by Netanyahu, but rather a visible consolidation around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Although the exact dynamics of influence remain unclear, it is clear that even within the Trump administration there is a perception that Netanyahu has promised more than he could deliver. Reports from Axios suggest that he has portrayed the war as easier and regime change as more likely than it actually was.
Others are more cautious. According to Daniel C Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller, Trump was “a willing and full partner” now bent on war. As the war enters its second month, with no end in sight and the global economy shaken by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences of the promise of an “easy war” are spreading beyond the Region. Security experts Richard K Betts and Stephen Biddle write that in the first weeks the war has cost billions of dollars, reduced support for Ukraine and shaken the global economy, while also weakening NATO and potentially emboldening countries like China, Russia and North Korea. While Netanyahu has used biblical language to talk about “10 plagues” on Iran, the reality is that Iranian and Hezbollah missiles continue to fall on Israel.
For Israel, the long-term consequences could be felt in diplomacy and public opinion. The war jeopardizes normalization agreements with Gulf states, known as the Abraham Accords. Some Arab states could blame Israel for getting involved in a war it did not choose, while the geopolitical balance in the Region could shift significantly.
Outside the Region, French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed skepticism that military strikes can solve Iran’s nuclear program in the long term, stressing the need for diplomatic negotiations. Meanwhile, support for Israel is falling globally, especially in the United States. Polls show declining support across the political spectrum, especially among Democrats and young voters. According to a recent poll, for the first time since 2001, Americans are more likely to side with the Palestinians than with the Israelis. Even within the American Jewish community, a significant portion oppose military action against Iran and believe it weakens both the United States and Israel.
According to Rahm Emanuel, this could lead to a big change: Israel could no longer be treated as the sole beneficiary of American military aid, but like any other country. “It’s going to be a different game now,” he said. “And you can no longer count on American taxpayers to foot the bill for you.”