War in Iran: The question that Donald Trump is constantly being asked these hours by American journalists who have contacted him by phone in Florida is: how long will the conflict in Iran last?
Trump told Axios that there are two options. One envisions a long war: “I could go on for a long time and take control of everything.” The other: “Let’s shut it down for two or three days and tell the Iranians, ‘See you in a few years if you start rebuilding your missile and nuclear programs.’” He then suggested that the operation could last four weeks. From Iran (with its nuclear facilities attacked last June) to Venezuela (with its capture of Maduro), Trump has chosen “in-and-out” military options. A quick operation in Iran would be very different from the “regime change” suggested in some of his calls, and discussed by some American and Israeli officials.
When asked by The Atlantic magazine whether he was willing to continue bombing until the Iranian people topple the regime, the president replied that he could not say that and that he would have to assess the situation step by step. From the beginning, Trump has wavered between these two scenarios. On the one hand, he has called for Iranians to rise up against the regime. On the other, he has cited two main reasons for the attack: the failure of negotiations and Iran’s behavior over the past decades.
LIMITED OPERATION OR REGIME CHANGE?
White House sources said Trump was considering a “limited strike” to force the regime to come to the negotiating table. Now, according to his statement to The Atlantic, the Iranians “want to talk”; there may be a diplomatic solution, but it is not clear when, because “they should have done it earlier.” After the killing of three American soldiers, Trump warned that the bombing could continue for the next three or four weeks. “It has always been a four-week process,” he told the Daily Mail.
On Saturday night, Trump wrote: “Heavy and precise bombing will continue without interruption all week, or as long as necessary to achieve our goal of peace in the Middle East and the world!” In Venezuela, Trump pursued a “low-cost” model of regime change, which is in effect a change within the regime. Regime change is a political objective, not simply a military one. Military force alone does not guarantee the overthrow of the regime.
H2: MILITARY RISKS AND WARNINGS FROM THE PENTAGON
Even if the theocratic regime in Iran were to fall, that doesn’t necessarily mean a democratic alternative would emerge. A system run by the Revolutionary Guards might not change foreign policy objectives. The Trump administration knows this. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made it clear a month ago that an operation in Iran to dismantle an authoritarian government led by a religious figure with regional influence would be “far more complex” than one in Venezuela.
This war is not happening in a vacuum. It is a moment of political tension, with concerns about the economy and Democrats pushing for tariff refunds.
In 2012, Trump tweeted to beware of Obama: “Will attack Iran because he has a low approval rating.” Now those tweets are back, suggesting that the president’s strategy may also be to distract from issues he doesn’t favor. Only one in four Americans say they support war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Most are not ready for a prolonged conflict that could affect markets, energy prices and lead to attacks on American targets around the world.
Few in Trump’s inner circle want a long war. Vice President JD Vance, who represents the more isolationist wing, has assured that it will not be. General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has also warned of the risk of ammunition shortages, especially of air defense missiles.
There has been some criticism from the MAGA camp, traditionally against foreign intervention. Tucker Carlson has called the intervention “disgusting.” Marjorie Taylor Greene has said this is not “America First,” but in the service of Israel. Others, however, have accepted a military operation, as long as it is quick. “Let him burn in hell… Regime change complete… Everyone home,” Steve Bannon wrote in X. (il Giornale)