The United States is aiming for a similar scenario: control of an Iranian oil account in its own hands to ensure the disarmament of the Revolutionary Guard and the Tehran regime.
In 2025, China imported about 48% of its oil needs via ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, not counting unspecified purchases of Iranian oil under sanctions. According to Beijing’s customs, the main suppliers were Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq and Kuwait. China has colossal strategic reserves that can fully cover it for 200 days, compared to 60 days for Western countries.
However, the situation is not simply a market issue; it represents a strategic challenge to the United States against Chinese influence. The American plan does not aim for sanctions alone, but uses the model of Iraq in 2003, where control of infrastructure and oil funds was crucial. In Iraq, after the fall of Saddam Hussein, a US-controlled account at the New York Federal Reserve was used to oversee oil revenues, limiting Iraq’s ability to buy weapons.
In the case of Iran, the United States aims for a similar scenario: control of an Iranian oil account in its own hands to ensure the disarmament of the Revolutionary Guard and the Tehran regime. For this reason, taking control of Kharg Island and the port of Bandar Abbas, the main points of Iranian oil exports, is key.
China is watching developments with concern, as any US intervention could affect its oil flows from the Persian Gulf. If Iran were to accept conditions for the regime’s survival, the US could use this as leverage to curb or prevent Iranian oil sales to China. On the other hand, if the Iranian regime remains aggressive, the Persian Gulf countries could seek Chinese support to maintain oil flows, increasing Beijing’s influence in the region.
Currently, the temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked about 200 million barrels of oil, enough for two days of world consumption, and even the opening of Saudi Arabia’s “East-West” pipeline is not enough to compensate for the shortage, making it clear that control over Iranian oil infrastructure remains the key to the game. (Corriere Della Sera)