Israel’s attack on Qatar could also help deepen Iran’s rapprochement with Gulf states, which have previously had hostile relations with Tehran.
The United States has spent years trying to convince Gulf states that normalizing relations with Israel will stabilize the Middle East and curb the threat posed by Iran. But Israel’s military attack on Qatar, a key U.S. ally and home to the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, has threatened to undermine the U.S.-backed effort. The Sept. 9 attack in downtown Doha, the capital of Qatar, targeted the political leadership of Hamas — the Palestinian group designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
Six people were killed in the attack, including a member of Qatar’s security services. The attack was widely condemned in Gulf capitals, where attitudes towards Israel have hardened due to the state’s direct conflict with Iran in June and the devastating war in the Gaza Strip.
The war in Gaza was sparked by Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, which left nearly 1.200 people dead. The Palestinian group is believed to still be holding dozens of Israeli hostages it took that day. “We are witnessing both a hardening of public opinion in the Gulf and a growing concern among Gulf leaders about the perception that Israel is now acting without restraint — ignoring red lines that were once respected,” said Michael Horowitz, an independent analyst based in Israel. It is unclear how the Gulf states will respond. Many of them are close U.S. allies and depend on Washington for their security.
“This situation is different in one important respect: Israel is a close U.S. ally,” Horowitz said. “That changes the calculus. For Gulf leaders, the real concern may not be Israel alone, but the perceived lack of American leadership in setting boundaries or enforcing consequences. This gap is likely to determine how Gulf states will respond in the future.”
The attack on Qatar is a double-edged sword for Iran, Israel’s arch-enemy, experts said. “What happened reinforces Iran’s narrative that Israel is a threat to the entire Region and has nothing to do with [Tehran] and its allies in the axis of resistance,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The so-called axis of resistance is Iran’s network of Regional allies and armed groups — including Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — against Israel and the United States.
Israel’s attack on Qatar could also help deepen Iran’s rapprochement with Gulf states, which have previously had hostile relations with Tehran.
“At the same time [the attack on Qatar] increases the perceived threat from the Iranian side,” Azizi added. “If this is happening in Qatar, which is a major US ally that is not part of NATO, then what will happen to us?” During the 12-day war in June, Israel and the US carried out a bombing campaign that targeted Iranian military and nuclear facilities, killing nearly 1.000 people. Iran responded by launching barrages of missiles into Israel, killing dozens. The ceasefire that ended the conflict is fragile, experts said, and the risk of a resumption of hostilities or a dangerous escalation remains high.(RFE)