While Ankara has managed to maintain its distance from the conflict, it has nonetheless watched with curiosity the speed with which Israel neutralized Iran’s defenses. This show of force exposed the weakness of an Iranian strategy based for years on the accumulation of ballistic missiles, without air defenses.
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran may have silenced the rockets for the time being, but it has prompted a strategic self-examination in Ankara. As a witness to the conflict, Turkey has been deeply concerned about the risk of a Regional explosion, prompting an urgent reassessment of its foreign policy and defense priorities. “Unfortunately, the genocide in Gaza and the conflict with Iran are rapidly approaching a point of no return. This madness must be stopped as soon as possible,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared on June 20, warning of consequences that he said could destabilize not only the Region but also Europe and Asia “for many years to come.”
In the corridors of Turkish power, an implicit question is constantly being repeated, with Iran’s Regional power weakening and Israel’s growing ambitions: what happens if Turkey is next on the list? In the face of these threats, Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on the imperative of strategic autonomy. “We will continue with patience, determination, perseverance and sure steps until we achieve our goal of complete independence in the defense industry.”
ANKARA, BETWEEN REGIONAL APPROACH AND ISRAELI RIVALRY
“Turkey’s priority is immediate stability on its borders,” said Hürcan Aslı Aksoy, director of the Turkish Center for Applied Studies in Berlin. “An influx of refugees would create a new source of instability. That is why the Turkish military has reinforced its presence on the border with Iran.” Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke twice with Donald Trump, on June 14 and 15, before meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Other phone calls with Regional leaders followed, with the stated aim of defuseing a Regional crisis.
According to reports from Middle East Eye on June 16, the United States informed Ankara of the impending Israeli attacks just hours before they were to begin.
This last-minute warning reportedly allowed Turkey to moderate its response and avoid a direct confrontation, even though tensions between Ankara and Tel Aviv had recently been rekindled in the Syrian theater. In Ankara, nervousness is growing over perceived increasing military aggression from Israel. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan did not mince words at a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Istanbul on June 21. “Israel is pushing the Region to the brink of total catastrophe by attacking Iran, our neighbor. There is no Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Yemeni or Iranian problem – there is clearly an Israeli problem.”
This concern is not new, but has taken on a more strategic tone since the publication of the Nagel Commission report in January 2025.
This Israeli committee, tasked with assessing the country’s security needs, identified Turkey as a growing strategic threat, even surpassing Iran in some respects, going so far as to recommend a rapid build-up of Israeli military capabilities in anticipation of a possible direct confrontation with Ankara. “This narrative finds echoes in certain circles in Ankara, fueled by the belief that Israel is gradually moving closer to Turkey’s strategic environment, especially through its military operations in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime,” notes Alper Coşkun.
PREVENTION, AUTONOMY AND THE TRUMP BET
While Ankara has managed to keep its distance from the conflict, it has nonetheless watched with curiosity the speed with which Israel neutralized Iran’s defenses. This show of force exposed the weakness of an Iranian strategy based for years on the accumulation of ballistic missiles, without air defenses. The Turkish president drew a clear conclusion: the security of Turkey, already a major Regional power, depends on a strong national defense industry – and on a close relationship with Washington, especially with Donald Trump, two elements in which Ankara has already invested considerable resources.
“Erdogan recently praised Trump’s responsiveness, explaining that whenever he needed to contact him, he received a response within 24 hours,” Coşkun reports.
“This accessibility is essential for Erdogan, who sees Trump as an interlocutor with whom he can negotiate.” It is a paradoxical relationship, since in 2019, it was Trump who imposed sanctions, excluding Turkey from the F-35 program due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 defense system. But since his return to the White House, the US president has suggested that he may reverse this decision. “We discussed the F-35 issue. We paid between $1.3 and $1.4 billion for these planes. I saw that Mr. Trump intends to deliver them to us,” Erdogan said on June 26, after returning from a NATO summit in The Hague.
But now, NATO’s second-largest military, Turkey, no longer relies solely on its partners. “Repeated difficulties in acquiring weapons systems from allies, especially the United States, have accelerated the development of national capabilities, including an air defense system inspired by the Israeli model,” Coşkun points out.
In August 2024, Erdogan unveiled the “Steel Dome” project, a national missile defense shield that integrates various Turkish technologies and uses artificial intelligence to detect and neutralize threats. “Our goal is complete independence in the defense industry,” he reaffirmed last week at the Council of Ministers. “We are preparing production to bring our medium- and long-range missile stockpiles to a level that guarantees a reliable deterrent.” In Turkish security circles, the idea of a nuclear deterrent is also starting to gain traction.
“The question is being asked, but how far Ankara is prepared to go remains uncertain,” notes Dr. Aksoy. “As a NATO member, Turkey expects American nuclear weapons. It is also developing civilian nuclear energy with Russian assistance. But it remains a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.” However, in a Region plagued by instability and as traditional alliances appear to be crumbling, Turkey intends to follow its own course. (L’Orient le Jour)