El Niño is a natural phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year. It occurs when the trade winds over the Pacific weaken or change direction, causing warm waters to move eastward. The heat stored in the ocean is then released into the atmosphere, affecting temperatures and precipitation in many parts of the world.
Sea surface temperatures in a significant area of the Pacific are currently more than 2°C above normal. Forecasts indicate that temperature anomalies could exceed 3°C in the coming months, with some forecasts going even higher. Experts say such an intensity would be unprecedented in records dating back to 1950 and could be the strongest event of its kind since the 19th century.
IMPACTS ON GLOBAL WEATHER
El Niño can change rainfall and wind patterns in many regions of the world. Signs of its impact have already been observed, including lower-than-normal rainfall in parts of South Asia and changes in hurricane activity in the Atlantic. In Australia, the risk of drought and fires may increase, while in Peru, Ecuador and parts of the United States, the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding may increase.
Experts say there is no clear evidence that climate change is making El Niño events more frequent or stronger. However, their effects could be more severe on a planet that is already warming due to climate change.
2027 COULD BE THE HOTTEST YEAR ON EARTH
One of the main consequences of El Niño is an increase in average global temperatures. According to expert forecasts, 2027 is very likely to be the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing the current record set in 2024.
Experts also warn that El Niño could have significant consequences for agriculture and food security, putting millions of people at risk in countries most affected by droughts, floods and temperature changes.