US President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of “regime change” in Iran, but the prospect may not be as simple as he makes it out to be, and the results may not match Washington’s expectations, CNN reports. Experts warn that overthrowing the regime in Tehran does not necessarily guarantee the coming to power of a pro-American or pro-Israeli government. On the contrary, there is a risk that even more radical figures will emerge, who could accelerate efforts to build a nuclear weapon as a means of defense against possible attacks by the US and Israel.
While Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could be replaced if he were killed, the failure of the entire regime would have grave consequences that American officials must consider. According to experts, such a scenario could lead to internal divisions and widespread instability in the Middle East.
Another possibility is for segments of the Iranian military to take power, but according to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, “these factions would not represent the kind of regime the United States has in mind.” Iran, a country where separatist movements have been pushing for autonomy or independence for decades, risks deep divisions and internal chaos if the government falls completely. “The overthrow of the regime means the destruction of the state and leaving behind a chaos that would last,” Parsi told CNN. The supreme leader in Iran is elected by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body, and serves for life, without a formal successor.
However, according to a report in The New York Times, Khamenei has selected three senior clerics as candidates to take his place in the event of his death, citing three Iranian officials familiar with the matter. Any replacement process could be accompanied by efforts by separatist groups that have opposed the Islamic Republic for decades, seeing this situation as an opportunity to act.