EU interior ministers are discussing the possibility of a migrant influx due to the war in Iran. What is expected and what could happen?
What is the current security situation in the EU after the start of the war against Iran? The European Union’s interior ministers discussed this recently. For German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, there are “no visible changes in Germany,” he said. According to him, there is only an “abstract threat,” but this has existed before. There are no known specific plans for attacks, but there are particularly vulnerable locations of American and Israeli institutions. Security measures have been increased there. Protests are now under special surveillance, as in many other EU countries. There are also Shiite Muslims living in Europe, but there are hardly any large protests in support of the Tehran regime, as were seen, for example, in Pakistan.
The Cypriot Interior Minister, who holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU, reports heightened alert after a drone struck a British military base in his country a few days ago.
Are new refugees arriving now? The EU is also concerned about whether a new wave of refugees could be expected to arrive in Europe due to the consequences of the war with Iran. Meanwhile, it was thought that another moment had come: encouraging the return of a larger number of refugees to their countries of origin. But all this is now unclear. The EU Commissioner for Home Affairs, Magnus Brunner, recalls that there have already been almost 10,000 returns to Syria. This is very few, he says. But we still need to monitor the situation – “and we do this from week to week.”
When it comes to voluntary returns, Cyprus is far ahead of the curve: with a combination of incentive programs and social cuts, around 3,000 Syrian citizens were encouraged to return voluntarily last year, said Interior Minister Nicholas Ioannidis. He also offers his own experiences: “We will help other member states increase the number.”
Belgium has recently increased incentives: Syrians who are still in the asylum process and decide to return can receive up to 5,000 euros. The German program to support voluntary returns is also showing progress, says Minister Dobrindt. About 4,000 people returned to Syria last year. The German government covers flight costs and pays about 1,000 euros in initial assistance, even though humanitarian organizations warn that the situation in many parts of Syria is still catastrophic.