Despite Ukraine’s logistical and technological advantages, Russia’s alleged surplus in manpower is not what it seems. By the time Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reaches its fourth anniversary on February 24, 1.3 million Russian men will have been killed or wounded on the front lines.
By Samuel Ramani
The latest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have collapsed dramatically. After a full day of negotiations in Geneva on Tuesday and an upbeat statement from President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, the talks lasted just two hours on Wednesday. While the two sides agreed on some “military issues,” such as the location of the front line and ceasefire monitoring protocols, they failed to reconcile their diametrically opposed positions on territorial borders. The intractable nature of these negotiations is often seen as beneficial to Russia. Within Trump’s inner circle and in some European capitals, there is a prevailing assumption that Russia can withstand Western support for Ukraine for much longer. This assessment is based on perceptions of Russia’s offensive momentum, manpower, and weaponry. By this logic, Ukraine must either quickly accept undesirable terms or risk a much more catastrophic territorial loss.
This line of thinking is overly pessimistic and at odds with empirical realities. In fact, there is compelling evidence that time is on Ukraine’s side. Although Ukraine has achieved few successes on the battlefield since its disappointing counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, the tide is finally turning in its favor.
From Wednesday to Sunday of last week, Ukraine recaptured 201 square kilometers of territory on the outskirts of Zaporizhia. These territorial gains are its fastest in two and a half years, and surpass Russia’s offensive momentum throughout December 2025. While Ukraine’s newfound speed on the battlefield was fueled by Russia’s weakening access to Starlink communications systems, it has more solid foundations. Ukraine’s fixed-wing FPV [First Person View] drone systems can strike targets 30 kilometers behind the front lines and evade fortified Russian electronic jamming networks. These FPV innovations make it difficult for Russian forces to advance and expose the weaknesses of slow-moving Russian tanks. New weapon shipments, such as the German Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), further erode the quantitative advantage of Russian artillery and increase crew protection against Russia’s drone warfare.
Despite Ukraine’s logistical and technological advantages, Russia’s alleged surplus of manpower is not what it seems. By the time Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reaches its fourth anniversary on February 24, 1.3 million Russian men will have been killed or wounded on the front lines. Ukrainian estimates show that Russia’s losses have exceeded its recruitment for two consecutive months. As President Vladimir Putin seeks to avoid declaring a full mobilization, these unsustainable losses are forcing Russia to increase its reliance on foreign fighters. Offering attractive salaries and deceptive guarantees that they will not be involved in front-line combat, Russia has recruited thousands of Cubans, Indians, and Africans to fight in Ukraine. These recruits have filled gaps on the front lines, but their treatment as cannon fodder has tarnished Russia’s image with some of its key partners.
Since foreign fighters do not constitute a sustainable source of personnel, Russia has been forced to reduce the intensity of its military operations in early 2026 to reduce the rate of loss of manpower.
Russia’s economic weaknesses are also becoming increasingly apparent. To cushion stagnant GDP growth, the Russian Central Bank has eased its tough anti-inflation policy somewhat and cut interest rates to 15.5 percent. These cuts will worsen Russia’s cost-of-living crisis and spread it to major urban centers. A recent BBC investigation found that food bills in Moscow have risen by more than 20 percent in a month. After years of relative isolation, Putin’s never-ending war in Ukraine is finally taking a heavy economic toll and eroding Russia’s urban middle class. Russia believes that by dragging out negotiations, it can come closer to realizing its maximalist ambitions in Ukraine. Many Western leaders have mistakenly accepted this logic. The statistics suggest otherwise, and Ukraine has powerful cards to play as the war enters its fourth year. (Politico.eu)