Nga Polly TOYNBEE
The forces of darkness were pushed back on Sunday. In Hungary, the combined might of Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Donald Trump’s America was defeated, while European liberal-democratic values triumphed. The populist-nativist right did everything it could to keep Viktor Orbán in power. US Vice President JD Vance, in the midst of the Iran war, found time to lend his support in Budapest – a month after the Conservative Political Action Conference of the American far right was held there. In January, Benjamin Netanyahu appeared in a video supporting Orbán, with statements of support from Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and France’s Marine Le Pen. Herbert Kickl of Austria’s Freedom Party declared that “a patriotic wind is blowing across Europe.” Perhaps, but not in their direction. Patriotism does not belong to them.
Orbán’s defeat by the conservative Péter Magyar’s Tisza party weakens them all. Orbán lost despite years of party-state electoral manipulation, constitutional changes, corruption and subjugation of the media, judiciary and other public offices. Hungarians finally broke free, sending a chill down Europe’s authoritarian right. Orbán’s Hungary played a key role in the global right. As the investigative climate activist group DeSmog put it: “[He] has used a network of state-backed think tanks, media and conferences to promote his brand of ‘illiberal democracy’ across Europe, including the UK.”
How dangerous the rise of the European far right has been: it won about a quarter of the seats in the European Parliament in 2024, held power in Italy, and joined or supported governing coalitions in Finland, Sweden, Austria, Slovakia, and (until recently) the Netherlands. Europe’s post-World War II image of itself as a global bastion of liberal democracy was under threat. Magyar is no social liberal, but he is bringing Hungary back into the EU mainstream. The result in Hungary fits in with the tide turning against Trump and his big mistake: igniting not only war in Iran but also a surge in inflation around the world. Cycles of power and influence move slowly, but a US president heading into midterm elections with fuel prices up 21 percent will no longer be an example for the far right, but a nexus to avoid.
In 2018, Nigel Farage, an Orbán supporter, tweeted: “Viktor Orbán is the strongest leader in Europe and the EU’s biggest nightmare.” The Reform UK leader may now feel the effects of any drop in support for far-right politics. After all, his party rose on this wave, but – according to psophologist Peter Kellner – it is already starting to fall. The failure to win the Gorton and Denton constituencies was a major blow, knocking out his main candidate, Matt Goodwin. His support for the US president is embarrassing, when only 16 percent of UK voters favor Trump. Consider his sudden withdrawal: on Friday he admitted that he “coincidentally knows [Trump], but that doesn’t matter.” What Farage never mentions is that Brexit did it – and he did Brexit. That’s because – according to Statista – 58 percent of the country now says leaving the EU was a wrong decision. Nor should he be allowed to forget his Putin-honoring statement that the West “provoked” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nor that, in 2014, Putin was the leader he admired most, albeit “as an operator, not as a human being.”
Currently leading the polls with 25 percent, Reform is expected to win strongly in next month’s local elections. But that doesn’t mean Farage will be seen as prime minister in three years. The warning signs include this, according to Kellner: Reform has overtaken Labour as the party people would most likely vote against, which will be crucial when tactical voting considerations come into play. It is doubtful that most Reform voters have been eagerly awaiting the election results in Hungary, but there is often a mysterious osmosis in political opinion, a vibration through which people who might not be news-obsessed absorb a change in the air. Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, thinks of the “tipping point”: he has seen many such illusions fade. We will have to wait and see whether Orbán’s defeat sends shockwaves to fellow Conservatives. “Will those commentators in the Telegraph and Spectator who think Reform could be the answer change their minds?” asks Ford.
The British right has flown very close to Orbán. This year alone, the Good Law Project reported that the Hungarian state-funded think tank Mathias Corvinus Collegium gave more than £500,000 [€574,000] to the Roger Scruton Legacy Foundation in the UK. The latter’s directors include not only Reform’s policy chief, James Orr, but also the Spectator editor and former Conservative minister, Michael Gove. What happened to the cordon that once protected conservatism from the far right? There is also a warning for Labour. Ford tells them not to take solace in the Hungarian result. On the brink of “the worst blow in history”, the biggest danger for Labour is “their current giddy complacency”. Precisely 70 years after the failed Hungarian uprising, the country’s resounding rejection of Fidesz could spark a new enthusiasm for European unity and liberal democracy. This is a vote to send far-right populism back to the fringes where it belongs. A series of European elections next year will tell us whether this was just a Hungarian story – or whether it resonates powerfully across the continent. But good news is exceedingly rare, so seize this now.