By Guido OLIMPIO
Donald Trump’s “epic fury” did not bring about regime change in Iran, but it did shake up strategic and economic balances. No sector has emerged unscathed from this storm.
THE WIDEST ATLANTIC
The way Trump launched and then led the war has deepened tensions across the Atlantic. European countries complain that they were not consulted. The US president has responded by threatening to withdraw thousands of troops from Germany, Italy and Spain. Is this a rift that can be mended? The closest test is expected at the upcoming NATO summit, on July 7-8 in Turkey. But it is widely shared that the conflict has accelerated the plan to give Europe a more autonomous political role, understood in a broader sense than just the EU. The main supporters of this process are the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
EPIC FURY AND MILITARY NODES
It was known, and yet they moved forward: aviation alone cannot bring the enemy to its knees, even if it causes devastating damage. All the more so when the adversary has been preparing for this test for decades. The Pasdaran has adapted its system taking into account what happened in the June conflict. The chain of command has continued to function despite the loss of key figures; the use of the drone-missile combination has allowed the Iranians to keep American bases, energy infrastructure, and Gulf neighbors under their sights.
They did not need to win; they just needed to resist. And they did so, perhaps by hiding internal divisions, playing on nationalism mixed with revolutionary principles, and using repression. The military engagement has consumed very expensive ammunition reserves, made it clear that the anti-missile umbrella has its gaps, and revealed a surprising underestimation of the axis between the mullahs and the guards.
GEOGRAPHY
Geography has served Iran’s defense and has made it possible to regain the blackmail of Hormuz. Shallow waters and limited spaces have favored the maneuvers of the Pasdaran, determined to impose control over the Strait. Mountainous areas have increased the protection of bunkers where launchers, missiles and enriched uranium are hidden. The Americans and Israelis have dropped tons of bombs on the targets, certainly weakening the devices, but if some leaks of information are true, they have only partially affected the atomic sites.
And Tehran has then kept a second card in reserve, always linked to geographical scenarios: the Red Sea. If fighting were to resume, the intervention of the Houthis from Yemen is possible, capable of threatening the second vital passage, the one leading to the Suez Canal.
DIVIDED MONARCHIES
The Gulf monarchies appear divided and Iran is doing everything it can to deepen this division. It is no coincidence that it has repeatedly targeted the United Arab Emirates, now considered the Regional supporter of Israel and promoter of a hard line against the ayatollahs. Abu Dhabi’s stance has caused repercussions within the confederation of mini-states, some emirates seek stability and not bullets, while it has deepened the contrasts with Saudi Arabia, against adventures and ready, despite everything, for dialogue with Iran. Similar is the stance of Qatar and Oman, long-time mediators, as is Egypt, a regime that has lost billions due to the reduction in maritime traffic.
SHIPS AND OIL
The Iranians have found themselves maneuvering an unexpected pressure tool on the brink of conflict: the opening or closing of the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s gas and oil needs pass through it. Two issues will arise for the post-war period. The first, of course, has to do with the restoration of supplies. Many predictions are circulating. The most reliable estimate that it will be necessary to wait until September to return, more or less, to normality. However, it remains to be seen under what conditions. Will the Pasdarans really be able to impose a tariff on every oil tanker? In any case, and this is the second issue, from now on another fundamental principle of law will be shaken: freedom of navigation in international waters.
ECONOMIC SHOCK
The war in Iran represents the third blow to the global economy in as many years. It followed COVID-19 in 2020 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Governments and industries, especially Western ones, are once again forced to re-examine supply chains for essential raw materials. Europe, starting with Italy, was completing its energy repositioning, having almost completely stopped buying oil and gas from Russia. The economy is back to confronting geopolitics.
Eyes are turned to North Africa, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other countries to replace, in particular, the gas that, for a period that is difficult to determine, will no longer come from Qatar and the other Gulf monarchies. Of course, another expansion opportunity opens up for the US, a major exporter of liquefied gas. In theory, this would also be a test for the countries of the European Union, which could enter the market with joint purchases, as recommended by the Draghi Report.
SAFETY AND PRODUCTION
But it is not just about hydrocarbons. Many other basic raw materials or semi-products pass through Hormuz: aluminum, helium, sulfur, nickel, cobalt, copper, plastics, petrochemicals, chemical fertilizers. Difficulties are looming on the horizon that will affect a wide range of sectors: electronics, magnetic resonance, pharmaceuticals, automotive, paper, glass, packaging, textiles, chemistry and many others.
The topic of what is called “economic security” is therefore becoming increasingly central. Companies, especially multinationals, have begun to consult with governments to identify new supply routes and, at the same time, to study how to make them secure. As a result, this process has already affected marine insurance premiums, which in some cases have increased fivefold. (Corriere della Sera)