As the conflict with Iran widens and intensifies, President Trump’s options are to continue the war, or to move toward declaring victory and withdrawing. Both have deeply problematic consequences.
By The New York Times
US President Donald Trump is facing a major dilemma two weeks after deciding to go to war with Iran. He must choose between two options: continue the war to achieve the ambitious goals he has declared, or try to get out of a conflict that is widening and bringing major military, diplomatic and economic consequences.
Trump has quickly discovered that both paths are problematic and fraught with consequences that he and his team underestimated when the US entered this war alongside Israel, the largest conflict in the Middle East in about a quarter century. On the one hand, he could continue the war against a weakened Iran, which has shown itself capable of increasing the economic cost to the US and its allies. Iran has managed to destabilize global energy markets and strike targets in several countries in the Region. But continuing the war risks more American lives, increases the financial costs and could damage relations with allies. Even within Trump’s political base, concern is growing, as he has promised to avoid getting the US involved in new wars.
On the other hand, Trump may try to withdraw from the conflict, although many of the declared objectives have not yet been achieved. According to American officials, the joint US-Israeli operation has achieved several important results: a large part of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed, air defenses have been neutralized, and the Iranian navy has been severely damaged. In addition, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been killed.
However, the Iranian regime remains in power. According to the latest information, his wounded son has taken over, who has vowed to continue the war through asymmetric methods: cyberattacks, naval mines and missile strikes in the Region. The Revolutionary Guard and its militias remain active. If Trump decides to withdraw now, another major problem remains: Iran’s reserves of enriched uranium, which could be used to produce nuclear weapons. According to estimates, Iran has enough material to produce about 10 nuclear bombs. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested that these materials may have to be dealt with in a ground operation, a very dangerous operation. Meanwhile, the war is bringing ever greater consequences. So far, 13 American soldiers have been killed and more than 2,100 people in total, most of them in Iran. Civilians killed in Iran alone are estimated at over 1,300.
The US has sent an additional 2,500 marines to the Middle East, bringing the military presence in the Region to about 50. The US strikes also hit Kharg Island, the main port from which most of Iran’s oil is exported.
Another major problem is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping lanes for global oil trade. After Iranian attacks and threats, maritime traffic there has almost ground to a halt. Trump has called on countries such as China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain to send ships to protect the passage through the strait. Attacks have also spread to the Region. A major oil port in the United Arab Emirates was hit by a drone, while the US embassy in Iraq has been attacked twice in recent days. Trump himself has given conflicting messages about the war. At times he says the war is almost won, while at other times he acknowledges that hard fighting is still ahead. He has stated that decisions to continue or withdraw will be made by following “instinct”.
The US administration has also acknowledged that Iran has more than previously thought the ability to destabilize the global economy, particularly by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. On the military side, the Pentagon says the US has complete air superiority and that most of Iran’s conventional forces have been destroyed. Iran is now launching about 90% fewer missiles and 95% fewer drones than at the start of the war.
However, even weakened, Iran still has the ability to create chaos, especially through attacks on shipping and through cyberwarfare. Such attacks have also hit American companies, while authorities are investigating several violent incidents inside the United States that may be linked to war tensions. Meanwhile, tensions have also emerged between the United States and Israel. Washington had warned Israel not to strike major oil depots near Tehran, fearing that this would lead to an escalation of attacks on energy facilities in the Region. But Israel struck them anyway, causing oil prices to rise and retaliatory attacks by Iran. The second front in Lebanon against Hezbollah has also created discord. The Trump administration believes this widens the conflict, while Israel believes that now is the right time to strike the Iranian-backed group.
Meanwhile, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speak almost daily, while the US president is also in contact with Arab leaders, particularly Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
In the coming weeks, Trump will have to make two very important decisions: whether to occupy Kharg Island, the main center of Iranian oil exports, and whether to order an operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium reserves. Capturing Kharg Island would give the US control over Iranian oil exports and would severely damage the country’s economy, but it would require a long-term military presence in the Region. The operation to seize the uranium would be a single action, but also a more dangerous one. The nuclear material is located in deep tunnels in Isfahan, and it would take a very complicated operation to get it out of there without risking a radioactive incident. For now, Trump says he has not yet made a decision on this operation. And that suggests the war could last much longer than initially anticipated.