The latest projections show a significant decline in the population. One reason: too few children are being born. Even increased immigration cannot compensate for this.
1.35 is the number that should alarm politicians. Statistically, every woman in Germany gives birth to 1.35 children. This is far from the statistical figure of 2.1 needed to maintain the population. This is according to current calculations by the Federal Statistical Office.
In 2025, approximately 650,000 children were born in Germany. In 2024, the figure was around 677,000. Around one million people died in each of these two years. On December 31, 2025, a total of approximately 83.5 million people lived in Germany – 100,000 fewer than the year before.
The desire for children is hindered by life circumstances. “Having a family is still important to people,” said C. Katharina Spieß, director of the Federal Institute for Population Research, at a presentation of population statistics in Berlin.
“People still want children, and now the question is, why aren’t there more children?” If the desire for children expressed by young people aged 19 to 29 in surveys were the decisive factor, the birth rate in Germany would be 2.4, says Spieß. “Security is a crucial factor in fulfilling the desire to have children. The many crises have meant that people are not actually realizing their desires.”
ARE CHILDREN A RISK FACTOR FOR POVERTY?
In addition to the general uncertainty caused by the global situation, there are also concrete problems: a housing shortage, rising rents, and a lack of or inconsistent childcare. Fears of financial collapse are growing as parents are generally having to reduce their working hours. It is increasingly common to hear from those affected that they simply can no longer afford to have children in Germany.
The Federal Statistical Office regularly calculates how the population will develop in the coming decades. Politics and business need these figures because the future of the country depends significantly on the number of people and their age. The latest forecast extends to 2070. A new finding compared to previous calculations is that the population could shrink by around 10 percent. Immigration will not be able to compensate for this decline.
RETIREMENT
A smaller population overall would not necessarily be a problem. But the country is aging. While the number of children and young people is declining, the number of very old people will increase significantly, predicts Karsten Lummer, head of the population department at the Federal Statistical Office. Currently, the so-called “baby boomers” are retiring. These are people born in the 1960s. After these years, the birth rate fell sharply.
“Even now, there are 33 people of retirement age for every 100 people of working age,” says Lummer. By 2035, roughly one in four people in Germany will have passed the retirement age of 67. By 2050, the number of people over 80 will have increased from around six million today to around nine million.
THE SOCIAL SYSTEM IS REACHING ITS LIMITS
These are figures that are particularly alarming for economists and social scientists. “The decline and accelerated aging of the population must be taken into account today in political decisions with long-term consequences, for example, in health and long-term care,” urges economist Joachim Ragnitz from the Ifo Institute in Dresden. The pension system is also coming under great pressure, especially since the trend is towards a shortage of workers.
Karsten Lummer from the Federal Statistical Office puts it even more directly: “We have a low birth rate, but a social system that still operates as if we have a high birth rate.”
The question of what the social system should look like in the future should have been answered long ago. “We didn’t manage to do this.” Currently, around 40 percent of people over 80 require some form of care. As the number of very old people increases, the need for care workers is also increasing. Around 280,000 people currently work in outpatient care for the elderly. According to Lummer, 690,000 will be needed by 2049.
IMMIGRATION IN THE LABOR MARKET
In recent years, the declining birth rate and emigration from Germany have been compensated by immigration. Germany has been growing steadily since 1990. A total of eleven million immigrants have come to Germany. The figures were above average in 2015/2016 and again after 2022 due to the wars in Syria and Ukraine. However, rapid integration into the labor market has rarely been achieved.
Martin Werding, from the German Council of Economic Experts, which advises the federal government, sees this as a policy failure.
“The German approach is very focused on language acquisition and schooling. It often spends a lot of time evaluating existing qualifications rather than assessing people’s knowledge,” says the economics professor. Ten years after the 2015/2016 migration wave, two-thirds of refugees are now employed, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research. Women from Ukraine are employed by around 31 percent.
MANY UKRAINIANS WANT TO STAY
More than a million Ukrainians now live in Germany. After Turks, they form the second largest non-German group. “They have contributed to a massive change in the structure of the German population,” says population expert C. Katharina Spieß. Society must ask itself: Can we rely on them, or should there be other solutions?
The Spieß Institute conducts surveys twice a year. “The intention of Ukrainians to stay has increased significantly; 42 percent want to stay.” But uncertainty is also growing within the group. “Today more people say they don’t know. Among children and young people, many say they can’t imagine staying here forever.”
IS IMMIGRATION INCREASING OR DECREASING?
Even the Federal Statistical Office cannot predict the future with certainty. Therefore, population projections are calculated using different figures, based on three demographic components: the birth rate, life expectancy and net migration.
The scenarios have one thing in common: Germany’s problems can be alleviated, not solved, only through immigration. Realistically, it will not be possible to find the necessary number of workers, and thus contributors to the health and pension systems, through migration alone.
According to Karsten Lummer of the Federal Statistical Office, keeping older people fit for as long as possible is the least that can be done. “We can hope for medical progress,” he says, adding: People should exercise more and significantly reduce their alcohol consumption and smoking. (DW)