A potential deal between the US and Iran hinges on the Trump administration’s approval of the unlocking of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
16 days of ceasefire. Since then, the complex knot of negotiations has become even more difficult to resolve, between the fate of Lebanon and the issue of unblocking $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds. The latest spark was the Israeli airstrike on the Lebanese capital, accompanied by new evacuation orders for the city of Tyre, which provoked a reaction from Tehran. However, rather than a “decisive and painful response”, as Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs and National Security, had threatened, what is happening so far seems like a controlled escalation: the attacks have been concentrated in northern Israel and not in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Sources close to the Lebanese government note that if Iran really had the means capable of forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon or forcing the United States to change its position, it would have used them by now.
Lebanon entered the conflict on March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. Israel responded with a bombing campaign across the country and a ground offensive in the south, which has intensified in recent weeks.
A ceasefire has been officially in place since April 17, but the agreement has been repeatedly violated by both sides. While Israel continued its attacks on southern Lebanon throughout the weekend, yesterday’s bombing of Beirut marks the third attack on the capital since the ceasefire came into effect, indicating a clear escalation of the situation. The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, leader of the Amal movement and a figure close to Hezbollah, this week rejected the US-brokered agreement announced after talks between the Israeli and Lebanese governments. Berri described the agreement as “a trap” because it does not provide for a parallel Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories in the south of the country.
The negotiations are weighed down not only by the demand for Hezbollah’s disarmament, but also by the organization’s own absence from the negotiating table. Its leader, Naim Qassem, declared on Thursday that disarming the group would mean achieving “the enemy’s objectives.”
On the other hand, Iran has managed to at least partially prevent the United States from negotiating from a position of strength thanks to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, this lever of pressure, although it has also had consequences for the Iranian economy, has not become a real instrument of diplomatic victory. A possible agreement between the United States and Iran depends on the Trump administration’s approval of the unblocking of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. This was stated on Friday for CNN by Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. He summed up his message with the words: “The ball is in Trump’s court.” However, US President Donald Trump stated yesterday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” show that the negotiations on Lebanon are not related to those taking place with Tehran and that the unblocking of the $24 billion will depend on reaching an agreement.
Israel, however, sees the situation differently. For the Jewish state, the connection between the two files is unacceptable. For Tehran, on the contrary, the two negotiating tables remain inseparable. In the middle of this clash stands Donald Trump, who for the moment seems stuck in a dead end.