The head of the German government, Friedrich Merz, seemed surprised by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. These attacks killed important figures in the Iranian leadership, including the religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but also many civilians. No prominent lawyer, nor any member of the federal government in Germany, has since claimed that these attacks would be covered by international law. However, the word “violation of international law” has not yet left Friedrich Merz’s mouth. Instead, he described the Iranian government as a “terrorist regime” and said: “Classifications from the point of view of international law will have little effect.” The US and Israel, he said, had “good reasons” for the attacks.
“I believe that (initially) (Merz) was convinced that the Israelis and Americans in Iran were doing things that the Europeans were not able to do, but that they shared the same political goals,” political scientist Johannes Warwick of the University of Halle told DW. At the same time, he did not want to criticize the Americans “who are somehow implementing their common goals with methods that he himself would not prefer.”
Since then, Merz’s sympathetic words about the attacks on Iran have sparked debate. Critics, such as those from the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights, have accused him of “capitulating to power politics,” while Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has warned that international law should not be “set aside.” Henning Hoff of the German Foreign Policy Association described Merz’s vacillation – sometimes he considers international law to be very important, as in the war in Ukraine, and sometimes less important, as in the war in Iran – to DW: “In fact, the chancellor seems to have a situational relationship with international law.”
FRIENDSHIP THROUGH APPROACH TO TRUMP?
Criticism increased after Merz traveled to Washington to meet with Donald Trump, just days after the attacks began. With a kind of rapprochement, Merz seemed to be trying to win Trump’s sympathy – which he temporarily succeeded in doing.
A heated debate erupted in Germany. The CDU’s foreign policy chief, Norbert Röttgen, told the Bundestag that it was a difficult balancing act: “Which is the lesser evil?” War is undoubtedly an evil. But: “The mullahs’ regime is the greater evil for the Region, for the people in Iran and beyond.” Meanwhile, Lea Reisner from the Left Party criticized the chancellor for “allowing herself to be used as Trump’s figurehead.” Expert Johannes Warwick concludes: “Merz in these matters – it cannot be said more clearly – had the wrong compass.”
Meanwhile, Germany quickly began to feel the economic consequences of the war in Iran: due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices rose sharply. This slowed down the already weak German economy even more. In domestic politics, this was the last thing Merz needed. While the ratings for the government’s work and especially Merz’s own fell sharply, support for the partly far-right AfD party rose. Meanwhile, according to polls, the AfD has already overtaken Merz’s CDU/CSU.
MERZ SEES THE USA HUMILIATED BY IRAN
Then, at the end of April, the unexpected turn came – or so it seemed. During a discussion with students, Merz said that the US in the war with Iran did not have “a really convincing strategy”. The Iranian leadership, according to him, was “humiliating” the US. What caused the turn? “I have the impression,” says Warwick, “that the completely excessive rhetoric that Donald Trump has used has scared and even repelled many people, even those of good will: there was even talk of the disappearance of Iran”. Trump, who in Washington had still appeared in complete harmony with the chancellor, was furious at Merz’s criticism. On his Truth Social platform, he accused him of having no idea what he was talking about. It is no wonder, he wrote, “that Germany is doing so badly economically and in general”.
THE ANGRY OF THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT
Germany is now expected to withdraw 5,000 US soldiers, possibly more. The planned deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles as a defense against Russia has been canceled. Customs duties on cars from the EU are also expected to increase once again. Merz may have angered the president, but the German public largely agrees with the chancellor with his new, critical stance. According to an ARD-Deutschlandtrend poll, shortly after the war began, 58 percent of respondents considered the military intervention by the US and Israel unjustified. Germans’ already low trust in the US has fallen even further under Trump. Only 15 percent consider the US a reliable partner. These figures have not changed much since then.
GESTURE OF GOODWILL – BUT ONLY FROM THE GERMAN SIDE
Meanwhile, efforts are being made to limit the damage, but for now only from the German side. Although Merz has stood by his assessment of the war in Iran, he promised that Germany will participate in a naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz after the fighting is over. A German mine clearance ship is already on standby. Whether this mission will be carried out remains open. But above all, it seems that the gesture to Trump was important.
However, the transatlantic relationship does not seem to have been repaired. At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden in late May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Trump’s “disappointment” with the conduct of NATO allies in the war in Iran should be addressed “at the level of heads of state and government”. The NATO summit in Ankara in July “will probably be one of the most important” in the history of the alliance. In conclusion to Germany’s 100 days of the Iran war, political scientist Johannes Warwick formulates: “Germany and Europe must define their interests and not stand like a frozen rabbit in front of a snake, while the snake is in Washington and moves one way tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow in another”.
More independence from the US under Trump – that was what Friedrich Merz was calling for as early as 2025, when he was not yet chancellor. After a phase in which he avoided public criticism, he now seems to be back to square one. (DW)