The US command recalls that ships and over 100 patrol boats have already been sunk. However, the director of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, warns that no convoy guarantees 100% security, and military measures are not a sustainable long-term solution.
After two weeks of tension with American operations and Israeli attacks, several critical points have emerged, some predicted but underestimated by Donald Trump, others related to the variables of any war.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
The main problem of the American president is to ensure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. For now, the Iranians decide who can pass safely. No sophisticated weapons are needed to prevent transit through this narrow corridor; drones, mines, missiles, small boats are enough to create a blockade. Sometimes, just a threat is enough. The US seeks a coalition of allies, but the response is often refusal or increased caution, because any involvement means entering directly into the conflict.
Experts say that, in addition to clearing the area of mines, the Pentagon must neutralize Iranian units along the coast and within the immediate territory.
The US command recalls that ships and over 100 patrol boats have already been sunk. However, the director of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, warns that no convoy guarantees 100% security, and military measures are not a sustainable long-term solution. The idea of an attack to capture Kharg, the main Iranian oil export terminal, has also been discussed again. Experts emphasize that, in all likelihood, losses must be calculated, and that the process of clearing the area of mines in the 90s lasted for months.
NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Damage has been caused to several facilities of the Iranian nuclear program. The goal remains to control 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, needed to build a bomb. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the material is located in the Isfahan bunker. To retrieve it, special forces accompanied by experts in handling the material would be needed. Experts warn of the complexity of such an operation and the role of the Revolutionary Guard should not be underestimated.
Iranian scientists have not completely disappeared, although Israel has eliminated some of the best and has intervened with cyberattacks and sabotage. However, the knowledge has not been lost, and the attacks could push the regime to continue its nuclear projects.
MILITARY ARSENAL
Israel warns that the strikes could take 3-4 weeks to destroy Iran’s military industry, including factories for suicide drones, long-range missiles and rocket fuel. Despite the damage, Iran continues to use Shahed drones and has expanded its fronts with allied militias, using what critics call a “strategy of chaos.” Also of concern are the expansion of Israeli maneuvers in Lebanon and the threat from the Houthis in the Red Sea.
ALLIED
Iranian actions have disrupted the lives and economies of the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf, especially the Emirates and the iconic city of Dubai. The presence of American bases has not provided protection and has created tensions. The monarchies are discussing the defense model, relations with Washington and policy towards Tehran. At the same time, Iran cannot ignore the economic consequences, as Dubai is of great importance for trade and finance. (Euronews.eu)