With its oil politically difficult to trade, Putin sees the Gulf conflict as an opportunity to portray himself as a stabilizer of international markets. The Kremlin’s message, including to the United States, is clear: Allow the sale of Russian hydrocarbons to cushion global price increases and avoid inflationary pressure on voters in the West.
Vladimir Putin wasted no time in taking advantage of the situation in the energy markets over the weekend. He held talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa. They are the leaders of the countries that dominate OPEC. A day earlier, OPEC had decided to increase oil production by about 0.3% of world demand. But this amount is not expected to actually come to the market, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, it will have no effect on curbing the rise in prices.
RUSSIAN OIL
Russia is in a different situation. It cannot increase production, as aging plants are reducing output below 10 million barrels per day for the first time in many years. However, Moscow has a large fleet of “shadow” tankers, with at least 150 million barrels stored at sea in various parts of the world. Sanctions have also made refiners in China and India more cautious about buying from Russia.
THE OPPORTUNITY THAT WAR BRINGS
With its oil difficult to trade politically, Putin sees the conflict in the Persian Gulf as an opportunity to portray himself as a stabilizer of international markets. The Kremlin’s message, including to the United States, is clear: Allow the sale of Russian hydrocarbons to soften the global price rise and avoid inflationary pressure on voters in the West. Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin envoy, expressed this position on the X network.
“It is time to secure long-term contracts for Russian liquefied natural gas, to build a diversified and balanced supply base,” he said. He also took a dig at key figures in Brussels, naming Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas, saying they would be last in line and that their policies had brought negative consequences.
QATAR KNOT
According to data from the Bruegel think tank, in January the European Union bought four times more liquefied gas from Russia than from Qatar. For this reason, it is paradoxical that the interruption of production from Qatar, following the Iranian strikes, has contributed to the increase in gas prices in Europe.
MARKETS REACTION
Financial markets have immediately reflected these developments. The main index of the Moscow stock exchange has increased by 1.3%, while the markets of European energy importing countries have decreased. The stock markets of other oil producers such as Brazil and Canada have also increased. Meanwhile, the Shanghai market has also strengthened, as China remains relatively protected from the direct consequences of the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
HOW LONG WILL THE CONFLICT LAST?
The further development of prices will depend on the duration of the war. The longer the conflict, the greater the destabilization. Currently, financial operators seem to be counting on a short-term crash. The price of oil has returned to the levels of last June, while gas remains below the levels of a year ago. Similar movements were also seen during the 12-day war against Iran in 2025 and normalized as soon as the clashes ended. However, no one can currently predict when this crisis will stop, including Donald Trump. (euronews.al)