Energy Flux estimates that U.S. LNG exporters and traders could rake in an additional $870 million in weekly profits. If the Qatar blockade lasts through the summer, monthly profits could reach $20 billion, rising to $33 billion in four months, $108 billion in eight months and $170 billion in a year.
“The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, so when the price of oil goes up, we make a lot of money.” Donald Trump admitted frankly: rising oil prices will bring profits to America. But rising gas prices could make it even richer.
Thanks to the fracking boom (a technique for extracting oil and gas), since 2015, US oil exports have increased tenfold, reaching 4 million barrels per day. About 1,5 million barrels go to Asian and Australian refineries, while 1,8 million are headed to Europe. To reduce dependence on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, EU countries have significantly increased their purchases of US oil. Today, US oil covers about 15% of European imports and in 2024 it will cost about 42 billion euros. With the price of a barrel rising, which is already approaching $100, this amount is expected to increase, not only because the same amount of oil will cost more, but also because reduced supplies from the Middle East could push European countries to rely more on US companies.
Trump’s statement is also confirmed by the brusa. Since the beginning of the year, due in part to the American intervention in Venezuela, the shares of major US oil companies have increased significantly on Wall Street: ExxonMobil +26%, Chevron +27%, ConocoPhillips +24%. These companies benefit not only from the increase in oil prices, but also because its extraction through fracking becomes economically viable when the barrel exceeds 60-70 dollars.
The United States could benefit even more from the rise in gas prices, which have risen sharply since the Israeli-American attack on February 28. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure have knocked out a very important supplier of liquefied natural gas: Qatar, which represents a fifth of global supply. Gas prices immediately rose in Asia and Europe. According to Energy Flux, the profit from a single LNG shipment to Europe has doubled, from $25 million to $50 million. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US has become the second largest gas supplier to the EU after Norway, covering over a quarter of imports.
Based on these prices, Energy Flux calculates that US LNG exporters and traders could rake in an additional $870 million in weekly profits. If the Qatar blockade lasts until the summer, monthly profits could reach $20 billion, rising to $33 billion in four months, $108 billion in eight months and $170 billion in a year. By comparison, the 2021-22 energy crisis from the Russian gas outage brought in profits of “only” $84 billion in 12 months.
So Trump is right: the oil and gas boom is benefiting American producers who stand to reap record profits from the war. But it remains to be seen whether this price increase will also be favorable for American businesses and families. Since the oil and gas market is global, the price increase is also being felt in the United States, where gasoline has reached $3,50 per gallon (about 3.8 liters), the highest level since May 2024, and where energy bills are also rising due to high consumption by data centers for artificial intelligence. Not a good omen for the midterm elections. (Corriere della Serra)