The El Niño climate phenomenon could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year. The alarm comes from the United Nations World Food Program, which warns that the world is facing one of the strongest episodes of this phenomenon in decades. According to the report, there is an 81% probability that El Niño will be very strong. Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have reached their highest levels since 1982 and this phenomenon could be among the strongest since 1950. El Niño changes climate patterns around the globe, causing droughts in some Regions and intense rainfall or flooding in others.
The World Food Program estimates that, in the 45 countries most exposed to this phenomenon, the number of people suffering from acute food insecurity could reach 274 million, an increase of 22% compared to current levels.
Southern Africa, South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million more people facing food insecurity. Meanwhile, rainfall is expected to be insufficient in parts of East Africa, the Sahel Region, Central America and the Caribbean, while the risk of flooding is expected to increase in Somalia and surrounding areas. World Food Programme experts say that while global food markets started the period in relatively good shape thanks to the 2025 harvest, conflict and potential losses in agricultural production could lead to higher prices, making it even more difficult for the poorest families to secure food. Another concern is the reduction in funding from international donors, which has limited the collection of data on the ground and the assessment of the real impact of the crisis.
However, the World Food Programme stresses that forecasts remain uncertain and the effects of El Nino will vary from Region to Region. The agency is calling on governments and humanitarian organizations to prepare now to mitigate the consequences of a crisis that could affect millions of people worldwide.