Apart from desires, there is no opposition within Russia. How can there be, if a retweet is enough to end up in prison for years? The case of the diaspora is different, there are three separate groups: the first, Navalny’s, is against Putin, but will not engage in Ukraine; the second, close to Khodorkovsky, understands that Ukraine must win, but stays away from the war; the third, which refers to me, knows that it must participate and is actively working on the side of Ukraine against the invaders…
For three days in a row, Garry Kasparov has been shaking hands and exchanging opinions about the invisible guest of the Munich Security Conference, that Russia that is all the more threatening to Europe the more America moves away from it. Something has changed in the last year, however, the former chess champion and dissident says by phone, as the last panel is closing: “Putin repeats that he is winning to continue, the EU is slowly realizing that it is a fraud.”
How is Russian society on the eve of the fourth year of the war in Ukraine?
It is difficult to say because 80 to 90% of Russians refuse to answer surveys for fear of repercussions. We can only analyze partial data. Certainly in 2022 a large number, between one and three million, sought to emigrate. I think that, tragically, the majority sees war as inevitable, a reality difficult to accept, but even more difficult to criticize, since it is served as daily bread from kindergarten to university to factory, and it is necessary to become part of its economy.
So, no cracks?
War is an instrument of the regime and as such has the full support of the state apparatus, but I would be surprised if more than 30% of the population supports it. The West’s biggest mistake is to look at the battlefield and the military results achieved so far instead of the narrative. The Russian people have never reacted to the end of wars. Putin says he will continue until he wins, so he repeats that he is winning not the game for Ukraine, but the game for the restoration of the empire: he knows that he may lose millions of people, but not the trust of the people, because every time a Russian leader has shown himself to be incompetent as a commander, the result has been fatal. The weak point is the narrative, Putin is not invincible and it must be said, I follow many “patriotic” channels that have begun to express doubts about his ability to control.
Five Western countries have confirmed, with tests, that Alexei Navalny was poisoned. Moscow does not forgive those who oppose it, and you are also being targeted, as you are the subject of two arrest warrants for terrorism. Do you feel the pressure growing?
I can say yes, I feel it. But, like Michail Khodorkovsky, I don’t have many alternatives, if they want me they will find me. I admit that I don’t go out like before, I limit myself, but I don’t change my lifestyle. I grew up in the footsteps of Soviet dissidents, the model of “do what you have to do and be like that”. I don’t look back.
What stage is the Russian opposition at, both domestically and in the diaspora, if it exists?
Apart from desires, there is no opposition within Russia. How can there be, if a retweet is enough to end up in prison for years? The case of the diaspora is different, there are three separate groups: the first, Navalny’s, is against Putin, but will not engage in Ukraine; the second, close to Khodorkovsky, understands that Ukraine must win, but stays away from the war; the third, which refers to me, knows that it must participate and is actively working on the side of Ukraine against the invaders. In recent months there has been a strong shift from the first group, once numerically the largest, towards the other two: awareness is growing that Putin’s defeat is the only chance for Russia to change.
Do you believe in the prospect of a ceasefire that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also spoke about in Munich, mentioning June?
We all want the war to end, but I don’t think a ceasefire is realistic with Putin who has made war his main business and with a million Russians trained to kill who can’t return home without causing major problems. Russia is in a bad economic state. If it closes the Ukrainian front, it will open one in Moldova, in the Baltics, it will start another war. Zelensky has made major concessions, but so far they have not brought progress.
What is your opinion on Donald Trump’s intentions, is there room to trust him or is he just playing Putin’s game?
I don’t know Trump’s intentions, but I see his actions and they are unequivocally pro-Putin, they have been from the beginning, everything he has done has gone in that direction. He has supported the Kremlin’s claims, cut off aid to Ukraine, abandoned Europe: Trump sees Putin and Xi Jinping, thinks only of money and glory not in the interests of the United States, but of his family clan.
Zelensky has criticized the Europeans for not doing enough. Do you share his accusation or do you understand the irritation of those in the EU who consider him a bit ungrateful?
I am not Ukrainian and I should not be polite, Zelensky has been too soft. Europe has been at war for four years and yet it has not done much. Why has it not turned off all the Russian taps? The truth is that, although it is recovering, full awareness is still missing. Europe can still afford not to fight because Ukraine does it instead and if it did not, the front line would not be at the borders, but at home.
Are you afraid that war fatigue has cooled European public opinion, which today seems less in solidarity with Ukraine?
I don’t believe it. It certainly hasn’t cooled down in the countries geographically closest to Russia. It’s normal for four years of war to be felt, but I don’t see a departure of Western public opinion from Kiev. In America, Zelensky is by far the most popular foreign leader in the polls and, where Trump is declining, his ratings are rising. I also have the impression that the hitherto colder Europeans are once again approaching the Ukrainians, who have been engaged for six months in resisting massive bombing of cities, in the cold, in hunger, in the damage to infrastructure: they are setting a great example.
Did you also have this impression while talking to European leaders in Munich?
Even the leaders understand, yes. They may not say it openly, but there is little doubt that if Putin remains in power an attack on NATO will be inevitable, not a real invasion, but an incursion, yes, probably into the Baltics, a blitz to show who controls the Arctic. European leaders may not want to say it publicly, but they are reaching the realization, psychologically difficult, that they must actively defend themselves from Russia and do so without American help.
What kind of player is Vladimir Putin and what move could he have in his hand to win the war in Ukraine today or to put Europe’s back against the wall tomorrow?
Putin is not a chess player, in chess he does not know the plans of his opponent, but sees his pieces and moves on the basis of the established rules. Dictators have no rules, they prefer geopolitical poker and raise the stakes until they are forced to show their cards. The time has come for Europe to go all the way and expose Putin’s deception. (La Stampa)