Hispanic voters who supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election are showing strong signs of discontent, according to research by NBC and the Pew Center. In that race, 42% of Hispanic voters voted for the Republican candidate, significantly narrowing Kamala Harris’ lead in this group. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won among Hispanic voters by a margin of 34 percentage points over Trump.
The latest data cited by the Pew Center shows that only 24% of Hispanics approve of Trump’s job performance as president. Meanwhile, 51% of them would prefer Democrats to run Congress, compared to 24% who support Republicans.
According to the same data, seven in ten Hispanic voters believe that Trump’s policies have had negative consequences for them. Only 65% of those who voted for him in 2024 say they will support the Republican Party again in the midterm elections, scheduled for November 3. The economy remains the main concern. About 86% of Hispanics consider it the most important issue, while immigration ranks lower, at 64%. According to polls by NBC and Telemundo, Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters has fallen to 27%. About two-thirds think that deportations have gone too far, while three-quarters are not satisfied with the way the administration is managing the economy and the cost of living.
Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, a Democratic pollster and co-author of the study, believes that these results show a significant change in the tendencies of Hispanic voters, following the progress that Republicans made in this community during the 2024 elections. According to her, this could create difficulties for Republican candidates in future elections.
On the other hand, Micah Roberts, Republican pollster and co-author of the study, emphasizes that the 2024 result was special and that Trump’s personal influence was crucial in changing the electoral behavior of the Hispanic community.
In the past, analysts John Judis and Ruy Teixeira predicted that Democrats could build a stable electoral majority in the US, thanks to the growth of the ethnic minority population, young people and people with higher education. However, the 2024 result showed that Hispanic voters do not necessarily support Democrats and that a portion of them may be attracted to conservative politics.
Trump managed to win support from a portion of this electorate, despite his tough rhetoric on immigration and promises of mass deportations. Some voters who had entered the U.S. legally may have supported tighter controls on illegal immigration. But, according to the analysis, the Trump administration may have gone too far with its policies, while economic problems have added to discontent.
The consequences of immigration policies are also being felt in the economy. In Los Angeles, for example, the deployment of National Guard troops to assist Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in arresting undocumented immigrants has caused tensions. At the same time, the decline in immigration has created difficulties for sectors that depend on immigrant labor. According to studies by the Federal Reserve, both legal and illegal immigration have fallen to very low levels. This may please supporters of a tougher border policy, but it also leaves some industries, farms, and services without enough workers. Many of these jobs do not attract enough American workers, increasing the risk of long-term consequences for production and economic growth.
On the US-Mexico border near the Mexican city of Tijuana, thousands of people cross the San Ysidro border crossing every day to go to the US for work and return in the evening. Meanwhile, the Casa del Migrante center, founded by priests of the Scalabrinian order, has housed more than 270 people since 1987, including immigrants seeking to enter the US and people who have been deported.
One of them is Martin Pina, who says he was deported after convictions for drug trafficking in California. He has served a total of 17 years in prison and says he could face life in prison if he is arrested a third time. However, his wife and son, who were born in the US, live across the border and he hopes to return to them one day.
Pat Murphy, a New York priest who ran Casa del Migrante for 12 years, has argued that the U.S. needs immigrants, and immigrants need jobs. The solution, he says, requires effective legal immigration reform that addresses the needs of the U.S. economy and people seeking a better life. The Trump administration has failed to enact such reform. Now, as the Nov. 3 midterm elections approach, Hispanic voters’ discontent with the economy, inflation and deportations could weigh on Republican support.