The war is not like other Shiite militias in Iraq or Hezbollah in Lebanon, which openly act on behalf of Iran. The Houthis, while posing as defenders of Gaza, are an independent national entity, largely funded from within the territory and controlling about 60% of Yemen’s population. They collect revenue from taxes, shipping fees, oil smuggling, and domestic arms production.
In March, shortly before the launch of a major US strike against the Houthis in Yemen, US President Donald Trump warned Iran that any missiles fired by the Shiite rebels would be treated as coming from Tehran. “Iran will be held accountable and the consequences will be dire,” he wrote on the TruthSocial network.
But just two months later, Trump proudly announced his first diplomatic success in the Middle East: a ceasefire between the US and the Houthis. With the move, Washington joined a list of countries that have signed similar agreements with the rebels, including the United Arab Emirates, which withdrew from the war in 2019, and Saudi Arabia, which reached a ceasefire in 2022.
ISRAEL, LEFT ALONE IN THE FACING OF YEMEN
After the agreement with Washington, the international coalition stopped operations against the Houthis, while the rebels continued to attack targets they called “Israelis.” Even Israel, which previously directly linked the Houthi attacks to Iran, no longer makes this connection publicly. However, Tel Aviv has launched a series of airstrikes on Yemen, following a strategy similar to that of Joe Biden: deterrence, weakening capabilities and trying to create fear in the adversary.
But even the bombing of civilian infrastructure and the elimination of most of the Houthi government cabinet have failed to bring real intimidation. Even a single drone entering Israeli airspace is enough to show the rebels’ strength.
AN INDEPENDENT POWER
Analysts point out that the war is not like other Shiite militias in Iraq or Hezbollah in Lebanon, which openly act on behalf of Iran. The Houthis, while posing as defenders of Gaza, are an independent national entity, financed largely from within the territory and controlling about 60% of Yemen’s population. They collect revenue from taxes, shipping fees, oil smuggling and domestic arms production, while also securing military assistance from Russia and China. This model allows them to maintain a gigantic army of 350-500 thousand fighters and suppress political rivals and domestic opposition.
OBJECTIVE: CONTROL OF ALL OF YEMEN
The Houthis aim to seize power across the country, or impose a deal that gives them a majority of the state budget and key government posts. For them, the war against Israel and the blockade of the Red Sea corridors are a means of pressure to achieve political goals. They have proven before that attacks on sensitive targets bring benefits: in 2019 they attacked Aramco oil facilities and ports in Abu Dhabi, gaining diplomatic and financial benefits. The agreement with Saudi Arabia now obliges the Saudis to pay the salaries of state employees who actually work in rebel-controlled territories, directly subsidizing the Houthis’ budget.
TRUMP AND AMERICAN CONTRADICTIONS
Trump, who initially demanded the “final elimination of the Houthi problem,” received a plan from General Mike Kurilla for massive attacks for 8-10 months, but was satisfied with a month of campaigning. The American position on the status of the Houthis as a terrorist organization has also been contradictory: In 2021, Biden removed them from the list of international terrorist organizations, reversing the decision made by Trump during his first term. At the end of his term, Biden described them as a “special terrorist group.” As soon as Trump came to power, he returned them to the most severe category, as a “foreign terrorist organization,” but in a completely paradoxical way, he signed a ceasefire with them.
A LONG-TERM THREAT
Avril Haines, the former director of national intelligence during the Biden presidency, testified before the Senate in May 2024 that the Houthi threat “will remain active for a long time.” In her assessment, the attacks in the Red Sea are part of a political strategy to strengthen the rebels’ positions in the Region, relying on domestic weapons production and the military power they have built. Today, the Houthis have fallen off Washington’s list of priority threats, leaving Israel to face this dangerous front alone. (Haaretz)