Iran is preparing for a possible attack as the United States has deployed key military assets, including an aircraft carrier and other bombers, to the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump has threatened strikes on the Islamic Republic over its brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters. If Trump authorizes military action, Tehran could be virtually powerless to stop an airstrike, experts say.
But that doesn’t mean Iran can’t retaliate against U.S. military and commercial assets in the Region, experts said, citing Tehran’s powerful arsenal of advanced ballistic missiles, low-flying cruise missiles, and combat drones and suicide bombers.
During the 12-day war last June, Israel struck Iranian military infrastructure, including missile production facilities. The Israeli attack also weakened Iran’s ability, which has an aging air force, to defend itself from air attacks by targeting its radars and Russian-made S-300 air defense systems.
Even under those circumstances, Tehran managed to launch hundreds of ballistic missiles towards Israel. Dozens of missiles, most of which were aimed at military facilities, penetrated Israel’s powerful air defenses.
“In terms of defensive capabilities, Iran is virtually defenseless,” said Michael Horowitz, an independent defense expert based in Israel.
But Iran “still has a large arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles that could easily hit US bases in the Middle East, as well as cruise missiles and drones that it would likely use to target US ships,” Horowitz added.
“Powerful” ballistic missiles
In June, Israel struck targets around Tehran, including the military complex in Parchin, the Hoxhir military base, the missile facility in Shahrud, and a factory in the Shamsabad Industrial Zone.
The strikes were aimed at disrupting Iran’s production of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which pose a threat to Israel and are “quite powerful,” said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Many of the medium-range ballistic missiles “operate on liquid fuel and depend on the infrastructure to launch and refuel,” Bruchmann said. “The Israelis used this fact to find and destroy most of the missile launchers during the war.”
The number of missile launchers Iran has operational is unclear.
Iran also possesses short-range ballistic missiles that are “often solid-fueled, much more flexible and therefore more difficult to detect before launch,” Bruchmann added, estimating that Tehran has several thousand such missiles.
He said that medium-range missiles “pose a real threat, especially to the smaller Gulf states,” such as Qatar and Bahrain, which host US bases and forces.
Beyond its weapons arsenal, one of Iran’s most powerful tools is its ability to disrupt oil traffic in the Persian Gulf, a Region that produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, experts say.
About a fifth of global oil supply passes through The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Iran has previously considered closing the route, a move that would disrupt the global flow of oil.
“The Islamic Republic has long been preparing a series of military capabilities designed to close this key sea route. This would create an economic shock that Iran could exploit,” Horowitz said.
US considers military options
Trump threatened military strikes on Iran after authorities killed thousands of people during a crackdown on mass protests that erupted in late December. Trump has recently backed down from that threat, although he has not ruled out carrying out an attack.
According to US media reports, Trump is considering a range of military options. They include strikes on largely symbolic targets, strikes aimed at eliminating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other leaders, or a prolonged bombing campaign.
Any US military action against Iran carries huge risks, experts say, and even a limited attack could provoke a response from Tehran and trigger a wider conflict that could engulf the entire Region.
It is not clear whether the ultimate goal of a potential US military action against Iran is regime change, encouraging defections in the armed forces and political elite, weakening the ability of security forces to suppress protests, or bringing a weakened Tehran to the negotiating table.
A U.S. air campaign, without ground intervention, would not lead to regime change, experts say. A ground invasion of Iran, the largest and most populous state in the Middle East, is considered an unrealistic option by many defense experts.
A prolonged U.S. air campaign is unlikely, experts say, citing Trump’s reported desire for a limited and decisive attack. But even a months-long offensive would not guarantee the regime’s downfall.
“A sustained US air campaign could severely damage Iran’s conventional military by destroying command and control systems and infrastructure, but it is unlikely that it alone would lead to the collapse of Iran’s security forces, which could be dispersed, hidden, and resort to internal repression,” Horowitz said.
“Air power can punish and paralyze, but there would need to be a simultaneous political rupture on the ground, such as the resumption of protests and divisions within the Iranian leadership, to truly bring about a complete collapse of the security forces or the regime,” he added.