NATO has warned Russia it will use “all necessary military and non-military means” to defend itself, as debates continue over whether the alliance should shoot down Russian drones and aircraft that violate its airspace.
The North Atlantic Council, NATO’s main political decision-making body, met on Tuesday after Estonia invoked Article 4 of the alliance’s founding treaty, activating a provision that mandates consultations if a member feels its “territorial integrity, political independence or security” is under threat. This followed an incident last Friday, when three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes, before Italian NATO jets escorted them out of the country.
The incident followed an episode on September 10, when around 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO aircraft to shoot down several of them.
“NATO bears full responsibility for these actions, which are escalating, risk miscalculation and put lives at risk. They must stop,” the alliance said in a statement after Tuesday’s meeting. “Russia should have no doubt: NATO and allies will use, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military means to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions.”
CAN NATO SHOOT A RUSSIAN PLANE?
US President Donald Trump has expressed support for a stronger response to airspace violations. “Yes, I think so,” he said on Tuesday, when asked by reporters whether NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes if they enter NATO skies. This followed comments by Czech President Petr Pavel, who told local media on Saturday that NATO “should respond appropriately, including possibly shooting down Russian planes.”
Marko Mihkelson, the head of Estonia’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, suggested following Turkey’s example. In 2015, Ankara shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber that entered its airspace on the border with Syria for 17 seconds, after being repeatedly warned to change course. “17 seconds versus 12 minutes. Next time, we’ll do it – if you understand me,” Mihkelson wrote on X (Twitter).
But it’s not that simple, according to Nicholas Williams, a former NATO and British Ministry of Defense official who is now a senior fellow at the European Leadership Network. While it’s up to each of NATO’s 32 member states to decide how to defend their territory — as Turkey did — when it comes to a collective alliance response, it all depends on the mission’s rules of engagement. And on the alliance’s eastern flank, where the Baltic air policing mission is conducted, those rules — while classified — “are based on a reluctance to escalate without compelling reasons.”
“NATO air policing has been going on since 1961, its roots are deep in the Cold War, when you had to be vigilant against potential violations and hostile activity,” Williams told The Independent.
“But during the Cold War there was a deep instinct and procedure against escalation, because escalation would have meant catastrophe and even nuclear exchanges. So air policing originated from the idea that NATO had to be vigilant to any violations, monitor and report to higher authorities if the use of force was necessary… but the main function is to monitor and react to violations, escorting the aircraft out of the territory, not shooting it down.”
To shoot down Russian planes in its airspace, NATO would have to collectively turn the mission into an operation and change the rules of engagement. “It would be a really serious and escalating move. Some countries would say, ‘No, our planes and our pilots are not going to shoot down automatically, we need political approval first,’” Williams added. “It’s not easy and it would turn NATO air policing from a defensive activity into an operation that could lead to confrontation and escalation without political control.”
HOW DOES NATO AIR POLICING WORK?
NATO member states that have fighter jets help to ensure the integrity of the airspace of countries that do not have air combat capabilities. In the case of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – all close to the border with Russia – NATO has been protecting their skies since 2004, when the Baltic states joined the alliance. NATO members with the necessary capacity contribute voluntarily to the Baltic Air Policing mission, which operates on a four-month rotation. Italy is currently responsible for this mission.
The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) is responsible for directing NATO’s air policing mission. This role is always held by a US general, appointed by the US president and confirmed by NATO. SACEUR does not act independently and needs the approval of NATO political leaders to launch missions.
“When a country provides assets for an air policing mission, it does so under a set of rules of engagement… so I imagine the Italians and everyone else will have provided their assets with the understanding that the mission is to monitor and raise the alarm and escort aircraft out of the territory, not shoot them down,” Williams said.
WHAT ABOUT DRONES?
Drones are, in theory, easier to shoot down than planes, Williams said. Of the incident in Poland on September 10, when three or four of 19 Russian drones were shot down after crossing Polish airspace, Williams noted that these were “unmanned, probably dummy, and there was no controversy or escalating fallout from their downing.”