The Israeli attack was so big, the displacement of people so widespread, and that touched a sense of Lebanese patriotism. So that dynamic is changing. But I think the overriding feeling is that people in Lebanon are tired of the war. But part of that is also the fact that they are tired of Hezbollah, right?
In Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, an Israeli strike this week brought down an entire building. Israel is certainly keeping an eye on Iran, its biggest regional enemy for decades. But as that war rages, it is also keeping another eye on Hezbollah, a loyal proxy of the Iranian regime, just across its northern border. Hezbollah has been weakened, its leadership has thinned, and now its backer, Iran, is involved in the war. So far, more than 900 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli bombing.
Another million have fled the south of the country. Bezalel Smotrich, the Israeli finance minister, promised that Dahijeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, will look like Khan Yunis in Gaza when it’s all over. Let’s be clear: no one will let Hezbollah get out of this alive. Sami Gemayel, one of the most prominent Christian leaders in Lebanon, sees this as a defining moment. People need to understand that Hezbollah is not an ally of Iran. Hezbollah is not a friend of Iran. Hezbollah is a product of Iran.
WHO WILL DELIVER THE FINAL BLOW? ISRAEL…
The question is: who should deal the final blow to this group? And what cost will the country and its people pay? Once again, Lebanon has been dragged into war. But this time, the feeling is very different. In the first 24 or 48 hours of the war in Iran, you could see a real anger, a great rage against Hezbollah throughout the country. Even people within their own community were asking publicly: why did you drag us into another war? We wanted nothing to do with this US-Israeli attack on Iran. And here we are. Now, Israel is hitting the whole country. However, within a few days, there was also a kind of “uniting around the flag” effect.
The Israeli attack was so big, the displacement of people so widespread, and that touched a sense of Lebanese patriotism. So that dynamic is changing. But I think the prevailing feeling is that people in Lebanon are tired of the war. But part of that is that they are tired of Hezbollah, right? Hezbollah has presented itself for years as a state within a state. It fought a war against Israel in 2006, which it considered a victory. In the south, it provides social services, it runs schools. But that “social contract” has been weakened a lot in recent years. It has not been able to rebuild anything in the south since the last war in 2024. Because of the problems in Iran, it has no longer had the funding to provide these services.
QUESTIONS ABOUT HIZBOLLAH
And in recent weeks it has been called into question even more, having dragged Lebanon into this regional conflict. This looks like a very different conflict. It looks like a conflict that will completely change the makeup of Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the future of the region. And there is a sense that Israel’s intentions are expanding, that this could lead to a ground offensive. Israel has not yet decided to launch a deeper offensive. There are over 100,000 Israeli troops massed on the southern border, and the IDF has made interventions on the Lebanese border. The main question is: how far will Israel go?
Between 1982 and 2000, Israel occupied about a third of Lebanon. It was a disastrous invasion that led to the rise of Hezbollah. And given the rhetoric coming from Israel, the number of troops on the border, and the fact that Israel has begun bombing bridges over the main river, the concern that has gripped many Lebanese is that Lebanon could once again face a prolonged Israeli occupation.
And the idea for Israel is that Hezbollah is weak and this is the moment to strike. From Israel’s perspective, this could be the final war. Hezbollah has been weakened to a level never seen before. When you talk to politicians in Beirut and diplomats, you get the sense that this war is not going to end with a ceasefire. It’s going to end with victory and defeat for one side. There’s also the question of the role that the Lebanese government is playing. For years, the idea of the Lebanese government confronting Hezbollah, disarming it, taking away its weapons, has been not only taboo, but dangerous.
People have been killed and executed for talking about Hezbollah’s weapons. And now this is on the table. A week ago, when Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets that drew Lebanon into this regional war, the Lebanese government reacted strongly.
WILL HIZBOLLAH DISARM?
She has made it clear that her goal now is to disarm the group. This is a group armed with tens of thousands of fighters, advanced missiles, and that receives hundreds of millions of dollars every year from Iran. A very powerful and dominant actor within Lebanon, and in many cases more powerful than the state itself. And in recent weeks what we have seen is a shift in the boundaries of acceptability in Lebanon, with a government that is talking about Hezbollah in a way that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. And how is the Lebanese government going to deal with Hezbollah at this stage? Beyond the fact that it has been taboo, can it make it happen?
There are two factors here. One is the political will, and the other is the capacity to do so. The political will is what has changed in recent weeks. There is a growing awareness that the military has to do something, it has to restore sovereignty.
But the issue is capacity. The Lebanese army is one of the few functioning inter-sectarian institutions in the country. But it has been hit hard by the financial crisis in recent years. Soldiers earn about $200 a month. Many report to duty only every two or three days and are allowed to have second jobs to survive. Do they have the weapons? Do they have the training? It is difficult to say for sure. Even those who want the army to do more do not expect an immediate and full-scale clash between the army and Hezbollah. They want the army to operate in certain areas.
But there is a growing view that if that doesn’t happen, an Israeli invasion is inevitable. The Lebanese government is already very weak. Its institutions are fragile. And there is a real possibility that the government will be the first victim of a new Israeli occupation.
Could a more serious state effort keep Israel at bay? There is a general desire for the government and the military to do more. Currently, American and French diplomats are trying to find a solution, a diplomatic pause that would give the Lebanese government a last chance. The Lebanese army is supported mainly by the US and France, and to a lesser extent by the UK. But there is a sense that this support is no longer guaranteed. Another risk is the sectarian consequences of an Israeli occupation.
IF IRAN COLLAPSES…
Over a million people have been displaced from the south. They are mostly Shia and are moving towards non-Shia areas. This is reopening the sectarian wounds that once led the country to civil war. This fear of a major confrontation was well summed up by Sami Gemayel: The moment Iran collapses, the next day Hezbollah will come to the table and say: let’s rethink the future. And if Iran survives and Trump makes a deal, then Lebanon is doomed for the next 50 years. For the first time in a long time, the government is mobilizing to do something. And it is clear: if it does not act, disaster awaits, invasion. But with 100,000 troops on the border, even that may not be enough. Perhaps the fate has already been sealed. But one thing is certain: the time when Lebanon’s political leadership could postpone problems is over. (BBC)